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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/4/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:15

kinda in th emiddle

Paul Schaal

12:15

Has any player with contact/whiff rates like Spencer Jones's ever had big league success? I just don't see how he doesn't wash out at this point?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

His contact rate is definitely shockingly low even in the minors

12:16

Unfortunately, we don't have a long history of contact rate in minors

I'd definitely be curious to see Kris Bryant

12:17

Strikeout rate itself isn't as big a deal for a slugger as some think in the minor

Simply because they're incentivized to to be aggressive since they're doing so well when they do actually win the hit-ball lottery

But Jones contact rate is SO low I'm not sure he'll adjust as well as some others

Jonathan

12:17

Should I be worried that Atlanta is just running it back again with two years of underachieving?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Depends who you're a fan of! I think it's very possible Atlanta ends up the best team in the division, but there are a LOT more things that can go wrong, and more likely to, then a few years ago

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:18

I'll trade you your Kindle for my sunglasses. I know you have them - I've looked everywhere else.

GA Blood

12:18

One thing that regularly catches my eye when looking at the ZiPS articles are minor leaguers that I otherwise wouldn't expect to get an opportunity for playing time in the coming season. Ian Lewis on the Marlins is an example. It seems like a significant portion of the data set it produces is for these types of guys. I know it's playing time agnostic, but how do you QA that data if there isn't a viable sample to compare it against?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

There isn't a great way, unfortunately. Though usually guys projected well year in and year out DO eventually get chances in the end

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:19

If you were running the Twins, would you trade Ryan/Lopez/Buxton? It doesn't seem like they're good enough to compete as-is and it doesn't seem at all likely they'll improve the team by spending any money.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I wouldn't have BEFORE, but I would NOW

simply because I think the die is cast

Older than you

12:19

Is Cedric Mullins really an upgrade over the Rays growing pile of 1.0 to 1.5 win outfielders? Any ideas why this is how they would decide to spend $7M?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I personally don't think so

Guest

12:19

Thank you for ZIPS. And conversations. May 2025 be a positive in your rear view mirror, and 2026 offer love and peace. May your weight losses continue as planned, and

Dan Szymborski

12:20

It's been going even better since i started GLP-1. I don't care if it's cheating!

12:21

I really gained weight during the COVID era. Too few activities and too much doordash

12:22

Even when I played sports, I was overweight, but then I got overweighter in college, with the beer:sports ratio changing and the overweighterer in covid

SALARY CAP

12:22

For you, what would be an appropriate salary cap and floor for the league?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

What the free parties agree to, honestly.

12:23

I'd prefer no cap/floor and a proper revenue sharing that gives more money to COMPETITIVE small market teams.

but I am neither a player or an owner, so I don't have skin in the game

12:24

I wrote a few years ago how *I* would do it as dictator of baseball

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlbs-competitive-balance-tax-is-anything-b...

12:25

Basically, I would give a small market team that wins 95 games a HUGE chunk of the revneue sharing pool and a small market team that wins 60 games *nothing* of it

mmddyyyy

12:25

At what age do babips project down?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

It tends to be a young player skill - whiel there are fast players with high or low BABIP, BABIPs very easily go downhille when the speed does

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:26

Thoughts on the Grayson Rodriguez trade? Seems like an early favorite for Fangraphs commentariat most maligned off-season move.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I hate the trade, but I think I hate it more that Grayson Rodriguez's injuries have cost so much of his trade value that he could only fetch Taylor Ward than I do the trade itself, if that makes sense

THough I personally would not have done the trade. I'd rather the gamble on the high-upside arm. Taylor Ward's always going to be Taylor Ward

12:27

Will there be projections for the WBC once rosters are out?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I was thinking about doing that, but I haven't realy decided

Old No. 7

12:28

If Brewers are fighting to make the playoffs and need a boost, do they call up Jesus Made this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

If he improves and hits like he did in A-ball in the high minors, they may need to call him up either way!

Philip

12:28

This is probably too messy for you to want to touch on, but there is lots of debate in the Skaggs trial about what his future earnings would be. This seems like something ZiPS could project pretty easily. Would you ever do a Time Warp for Skaggs?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I admittedly shy away from doing Time Warps for players who die as it's really hard to avoid being gauche. LIke I won't do one for Fernandez or Taveras or Ventura. I still haven't really gotten to the point where I'm comfortable doing Bostock or Munson

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