Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/5/16
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Dan Szymborski
11:58
Hail to whatever you found in the sunlight that surrounds you this Monday morning: The Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat.
Roadhog
11:58
Braves found the price of Gray "too high." After Sale is off the board somewhere else, do they bite the bullet?
Dan Szymborski
11:58
I suspect no. I don't think Atlanta's feeling is that the rebuild is *quite* as far along as they express to the public.
A's should have traded Gray last winter. Not really a fan of Oakland's front office these days.
Bork
11:58
Has EE priced himself out of a contract? It seems like all his possible suitors are bowing out one by one with cheaper alternatives.
Dan Szymborski
11:59
It's possible that he's hurt his negotiating position, but there are still teams that are going to want him.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:00
Fan of the Matt Holliday signing?
Dan Szymborski
12:01
Not really all that big in the big picture. Probably a few million extra from what he really ought to have given his age and recent history, but the Yankees haven't gone mega-thrift.
Julio Pepper
12:01
This Steve Pearce signing seems completely outrageous. He's basically a 2 WAR/120+ hitter who can play 2B. What does ZIPs think of this?
Dan Szymborski
12:01
It's a really good signing for the Jays.
CarrotJuice
12:01
Melancon might sign with the Giants during this very chat! If he does, will you give us, your loyal chat viewers, a first look at the ZiPS breakdown of his contract?
Dan Szymborski
12:01
perhaps.
Ed in Iowa
12:01
I’m confused about Otani… Should we assume from his (and his team’s) statement about coming to the US next year that there must be an Otani-shaped loophole in the new CBA language regarding International signings?
Dan Szymborski
12:03
The issue is that there is some CBA language that now clashes with MLB's agreement with NPB. Or at least that's my impression.
Guest
12:03
Should the Bluejays think about trading J.A Happ? his value is as high as it'll get and he won't be getting any better
Dan Szymborski
12:04
I think as long as they're seriously competitive, it makes sense to hang onto him, but if the Blue Jays throw in the towel in 2017, Happ should be the first to go and quickly.
HS
12:04
Loved seeing you on Value town last week, any chance you will do some HS streams in the future? Would love to see it.
Dan Szymborski
12:04
I've done occasional ones, the problem is that my schedule is such that streams won't be regular.
Seven Costanza
12:04
How are super-high BABIP guys handled in ZiPS? Saw that Goldschmidt was projected at .341. Trout, Votto, and Marte also come to mind as high BABIP guys. Does the system give more credence to high BABIP as a skill as the sample increases (ex: Votto @ .357 BABIP in over 5k PA), or does age tend to suppress more than track record inflates? (I feel like I worded this poorly.)
Dan Szymborski
12:05
ZiPS uses an xBABIP-like measure to estimate future $H, but the longer a player over or underperforms what one would expect, the more credence ZiPS gives to it.
Same goes for pitchers. ZiPS would be a lot more willing to believe Tom Glavine was a $H-overperformer in 2000 than it would be in 1992.
Ned Yost
12:06
Put together the framework of a Danny Duffy trade
Dan Szymborski
12:07
I hate theoretical trades, but
12:08
How about Duffy to Houston for Paulino, Hernandez, and maybe a lower ranked pitcher with upside like Guduan?
John
12:08
Pretend you're AJ Preller... make a starting five appear out of thin air.
Dan Szymborski
12:08
I don't think they can! I'm not magical. Padres aren't about 2017.
Hoss
12:08
Has Houston given up somewhat on AJ Reed? They seem to be stocking their roster as if they aren't expecting anything from him in 2017.
Dan Szymborski
12:09
I don't think they've given up on him, but they're a competitive team now and it makes sense to be more interested in high floors right now.
CarrotJuice
12:09
Bud Selig getting into the HOF is like Dave Stewart winning executive of the year.
Dan Szymborski
12:09
Bud Selig wasn't as bad as commish as Stewart was an executive.
I think that would be more Bowie Kuhn.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:09
Do the Rays and Braves/Astros actually match up for an Archer deal, or are all teams looking for the other to make an offer they just can't pass up?
Dan Szymborski
12:10
I think Astros line up better really.
The Decadent Moose
12:10
Von Schloss
12:10
Are you going to play FF XV?
Dan Szymborski
12:10
At some point! I don't have a PS4 yet, so I'm kinda waiting to see for hints of a PC port.
Tony
12:11
Would you consider trading rosaio and Don smith as a package for abreu and eaton? That would allow you to trade Duda/Bruce/conforto for relievers and prospects
Dan Szymborski
12:11
YOu'd have to go farther than that. The White Sox ask just for Sale is a lot.
The Decadent Moose
12:11
What did ZiPS say for Rich Hill? That a good contract based on his career?
Dan Szymborski
12:12
The numbers floating around are fairly reasonable - it's hard to get pitching and he really was quite good.
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