JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/9/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/9/21

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Ryan

12:18

Hey Dan. With Tatis hitting 42 home runs last year in only 130 games does zips have him going over 50 this year? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

No

12:19

Now, he *could* hit 50, but it doesn't really work as an over/under number.

12:20

Stars do not have symmetrical expectations. Pretty much anyone having an MVP-type season has a worse baseline expectation

Chris

12:20

Rob Manfred said players leaving cities through free agency is bad for baseball. Wouldn't some sort of restricted free agency where teams have the right to match a contract (up until say 29 years old) be an easy compromise where players could get paid earlier but won't leave so neither side is happy but both sides get something?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I don't think it would be an EASY compromise, but there's probably some universe where some version of this would fly

Guest

12:21

So...back when there was some question as to whether the other owners would approve Steve Cohen as owner of the Mets, most of the talk focused on the billion-dollar penalty that Cohen's company paid. But I never bought that. It seemed to me that the other owners were really worried that Steve and his $$$ would drive up the cost of free agents. Have their worst fears been realized?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I wouldn't say so yet

It's hard to "drive up" prices in this manner.

12:22

Top free agents are very scarce and the Mets aren't going to buy all of them.

It's like when the Hostess factory shut down and Twinkies were doing for 2K on ebay

It didn't really drive the price of a Twinkie up.

12:23

Every run-of-the-mill catcher didn't get $10 million for a long time just because McCann got a deal\

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:23

How much value do you think Greinke can provide a team this year? Anything more than innings eating at the back of the rotation at this stage?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

No. I think he's likely to give a bunch of averagish innings, depending on health

Inaccessible Rail

12:24

After ballooning the payroll to its current state, Mets HAVE to sign another starter and a couple of bullpen arms, right? Otherwise all that money spent could easily be for naught.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think they do have to

Bubba

12:24

Assuming Cohen doesn't want to spend infinite money (inconclusive, at the moment), would the Mets be better off spending $43MM a year on Scherzer, or spend a similar amount of money on Stroman or Gausman and someone like Gray? Or maybe even Stroman and Gausman?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I love me some Scherzer

But I'd rather have had two of Stroman/Gausman/Ray/ERod

12:25

Bubba

12:25

Given the players want some significant changes to the CBA and the owners don't have any really big asks, what kind of concessions do you think the players can extract?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

May get a five OR age 30

errr

a five IF age 30

Playoff expansion is a pretty big ask

Guest

12:26

If you were crowned SABR Lord, what stats' names would you change? And to what?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

None, really

unless I'm allowed to rename pitcher wins into "accounting fictions"

Al Bundy

12:26

Will Roberto Osuna be receiving a ZiPS projection? If so, what are we looking at for him? Thanks in advance.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Oops, did I not do one for him?

He'll be in one of the cleanup runs

Matt

12:27

Any guesses for what the Phillies do when the lockout is over?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Little.

Jiffy

12:27

What are the chances the Angels do what they always do.... Miss out on all the starting pitching, then panic and give ten years to Carlos Correa?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Sounds about right. They're running out of pitcher targets

Chris

12:28

I know the rangers are getting a lot of mixed reactions for their signings, but isn't there some argument that they have made a calculated bet that expanded playoffs are coming and they are closer to that goal than people are giving them credit

Dan Szymborski

12:28

It could be, especially with the novelty

Chris

12:28

Juan soto for the space needle? Who says no

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Who handles the shipping?

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