JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/11/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:35

Please Y

and probably Y

FannyGraphy

12:36

Hi Dan, I realize this question is random, but how did Ellis Burks not get any ROY votes in 1987? A 20-20 season? 94 Runs??

Dan Szymborski

12:36

The competition was intense that year

12:37

He was only tied for fifth among AL rookies in homers

McGwire hit 49 homers, Seitzer was well over .300, and Matt Nokes was a catcher hitting 30 homers

12:38

His 2.7 WAR was only 7th among AL position rookies (not that they would explicitly know WAR at the time)

Kyler

12:38

It seems like not having a minor league season in 2020 really makes it hard to project some players/teams this season. For someone like Pache, it's clear that the team is much higher on him than the projections. But with hardly any data to go on the projections are going to be extremely conservative. But the team saw him every day at the alternate site and felt confident enough to give him the keys to CF in the postseason so it feels like you can take the over on a prospect like that when he has the vote of confidence from the team and they have more data the the projections, even if it was from a year of intrasquad games haha. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I'm not necessarily sure.

12:39

It's hard to see the consequences of 2020 yet.

Generally speaking, I haven't found any kind of team consideration variable as a helpful variable.

A Boy Named Yu

12:39

I get an incredible amount on entertainment from creating relevant players/prospects into The Show that didn't come with the game. Please tell me I'm not the only one?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I don't usually do that, but I'm sure someone does

I did make a fictional Mussina kid with his repertoire and appearance and windup

12:40

Muamar Mussina!

Muammar

Rodney

12:40

From 2017-2019, Trevor Bauer and Robbie Ray produced awfully similar results. There's a big cleavage in their outlooks now - but is it possible Ray can still be a legitimate #3 in Toronto?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

It is. I like the signing

Bait Silver

12:40

Which FG MLB team projection do you think is likely to be the MOST OFF, i.e., miss the widest? (Or PECOTA if you prefer.)

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I'm befuddled by the Boston projection

In ours

I'm not going to dish on the competition. It's not very classy!

Guest

12:41

oooh yeah it's STEP BY STEP day on soundcloud

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Dammi,t I thought you guys would have forgotten this by now

12:44

OK, I discovered I do not know this theme song very well

JRussellFinch

12:44

How much weight, if any, does 2020 get in ZIPS and other projection models? It appears 2021 player forecasts weight 2020 lightly.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I think I wrote abou tthis?

I don't know about other models

I think Ariel Cohen did a look at how systems were treating 2020

Guest

12:45

The Giants are required to sign Shane Greene and pitch him in tandem with Jake McGee, just for the Shake McGreene headline.

A Boy Named Yu

12:45

Did you know that the Janitor from "Scrubs" is the first baseman in "Rookie of the Year"? That's a thing that you know now.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

WHY DIDN'T HE SAVE HIS MONEY

Don Von Handburger

12:45

Who is a better hurler of baseballs: Zack Gallen or Corbin Burnes?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

If you're making me choose, I'm going with Gallen

Guest

12:45

Dan, I can't help but feel terrible for Acuna, how did his agent talk him into that contract?...yes, big picture it's a lot of money, more than I'll see in my lifetime but the amount left on the table is staggering

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It's the Albies one which is especially crazy

12:46

"Hey Ozzie, how about we make you SCOTT KINGERY RICH?"

Acuña at least gets 100 million guaranteed

12:47

With TEAM OPTIONS, Albie makes out at 9/45!