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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/15/17
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AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
There were 26 players signed to one-year MLB free agency deals on below-.500 teams last year. 3 got flipped for a prospect that was in the new team's MLB top 25.
Year before, 0 of 18.
Tim
2:20
ZiPS sees regression across the board for the Reds offense - which I (somewhat) understand. However, what I don't get is why it keeps telling Joey Votto to become a mortal when he's clearly not one.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
When I think of crazy huge dropoffs, the drop from Votto's 5.0 fWAR in 2016 to 4.6 WAR projection is absolutely the first one that comes to mind.
Connor
2:21
With Reyes out for the year, what are the chances that Luke Weaver makes the Opening Day rotation. I like him as a dark horse ROY candidate
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:21
They've improved considerably. ZiPS likes Weaver too, and put him way farther up the prospect list than most.
Matt
2:21
Who is a player that you and ZiPs disagree on this year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:21
Gotta wait for the piece ont hat one!
Cam
2:21
How many articles are you "sitting on" at any given time, awaiting tinkering or building up the nerve to hit post?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:21
In that sense, zero.
There are always some set pieces that I do every year.
2:22
But there's nothing I tinker with or build up the nerve to post.
I think of a piece, sit down, write the piece once through, and file.
It's just the way I work.
JSDee
2:22
over/under of 81.5 wins for a team full of 90% outcome padres?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:23
Well, a whole team of 90% would be way about 90th percentile for the team, so easily above 81.5
kyle reed
2:23
How many more good years does Adam Jones have left?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
Let's call 3 WAR good. ZiPS doesn't project him to be 50/50 to hit 3 WAR again, but given uncertainty, he'll probably still do it once more.
v2micca
2:24
Do the Cardinals still consider Alex Reyes off limits in a trade?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
Nobody's *really* off limits. That's a public stance, not a trade strategy
Erik
2:24
How far out do we have to go before budget becomes far more significant than current roster/minor league system in predicting a team's win total? I.e. if we're picking world series favorites 5 years down the row, should we automatically just pick the Dodgers and Yankees? What about 10 years?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
Haven't really thought of that.
baby bull
2:24
how would you distribute playing time in NYM Outfield?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
Yikes
2:26
I'm not even positive which of Cespedes/Conforto/Granderson I least hate in centerfield.
2:28
I might even start Lagares if the opposing team has more flyball hitters and one of the more flybally starters is on the mound
Connor
2:28
2017 World Series matchup?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:29
It will be between the winners of the American League and National League Championship Series.
baby bull
2:29
how is Bryce Harpers career in WWE2k17 going?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:29
He hasn't done much in my universe, but Wil Myers has the Intercontinental title.
Merv Throneberry
2:30
Carter Capps - closing for the Pads by June?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:30
If he's up to midseason pogo stick form, sure.
He has the most trade value if he becomes a closer.
baby bull
2:30
any faith in Michael Wacha this year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:30
Mixed feelings.
baby bull
2:31
What will Miguel Sano's career low k% be?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:31
His 0% in 2014.
Brad
2:31
Would you have preferred to see the Rays sign Chris Carter or Logan Morrison?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:31
Carter
Pomeranz
2:31
Boom or Bust on dahl?
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