JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/19/18

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Dan Szymborski

2:12

I don't think they're properly incentivized. They probably have the easiest divisional race. I like the Twins, but there are realistically only two non super-long-shot AL Central winners.

Joe

2:12

Are the Orioles finished for the off season? Any chance they make a surprise splash here?

Dan Szymborski

2:12

If Cashner is their idea of a splash, I hope they get out of thte pool

Erik

2:12

Let's say something crazy happens and you figure out how to get ZiPS up to 100% accuracy. What would you do? That would be too powerful of a weapon to unleash into the world, right? Would you realize a deliberately poor version of the projections, make billions gambling, and disappear to a private island? Would you use them to become a GM? Or would you release your forecasts to the public anyway just to see what happens?

Dan Szymborski

2:13

That accurate? I think I just wouldn't release projections publicly anymore.

I've already had an increasing problem of Las Vegas's over/unders coming closer every year. It's reduced my prime betting opportunities.

2:14

2:15

I bet on the teams with a 4 win differential between ZiPS and Vegas last year. There are only half-as-many teams in that category right now

GRUMPY TURNER

2:15

Do you have a projection for Chris Martin of the Rangers, recently signed from Japan?

Dan Szymborski

2:15

Yeah, it was submitted to Apples

GRUMPY TURNER

2:15

Will you be releasing a Jung-ho Kang projection?

Dan Szymborski

2:15

For this year, yes. But it's his last one unless he gets back to the US

Colt Holt

2:15

Given the recent success of the reds offense, and the depth of high upside low floor options at SP, although they are unlikely to post a winning record, isn’t a playoff berth plausible?

Dan Szymborski

2:16

It's possible. They have a lot of very interesting starting pitchers, only a couple of that were actually piching for them last year

ZiPS already has them beter than Steamer does, into the mid-high 70s

John Oleruds Helmet

2:16

Could a two way player that’s more offense first and a solid middle reliever become the new market inefficiency? Seems like a good way to essentially give a team a 26 man roster. Maybe the Rays develop McKay this way??

Dan Szymborski

2:16

That would be pretty cool.

Sharp

2:16

Are the Orioles really going to lead the lead in homers this year? The Yanks have 3 players who can put up 130-140 alone!

Dan Szymborski

2:16

I'd guess the Yankees

Though th at's not exactly going out on a limb

Sharp

2:16

Dickerson to Nats for Goodwin is just a horrid idea, right?

Dan Szymborski

2:16

I don't see the lure.

Szan Dymborksi

2:17

You finished your team-by-team ZiPS publications, when will the full ZiPS be posted in the projections section?

Dan Szymborski

2:17

Apples has the data now, so it should be up in the not-too-distant future.

I didn't bug him for a date and time, he's got other stuff to worry about too.

CamdenWarehouse

2:17

The Orioles have signed Tillman and Cashner to bolster their rotation. 1)where were they on the list of pitchers the Orioles should have gone after, 2) where were they on the list of pitchers you expected them to sign, and 3) is the rotation actually bolstered/do you think the 2018 rotation will improve on last years 5.70 ERA?

Dan Szymborski

2:18

I was gallows humor-ing at the start of the winter that the O's would probably sign Cashner.

Tillman's a fine risk.

If the O's won't pay for a low-risk excellent player, I'd rather a high-risk mediocrity than a mediocrity with now upside.

Sharp

2:19

Moustakas to the Nats on a 1 year deal and they dump Matt Adams

Dan Szymborski

2:19

I don't think this is likely.

Betting Man

2:19

Who would you take not named the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Nats, Indians, Red Socks or Angels to win it all?

Dan Szymborski

2:19

At that point, probably Cardinals

I think that's literally who ZiPS has next in WS prob, but I don't have that all opened

2:20

Oh, back to the O's, I think they beat 5.70. They were a tad unlucky. I think talent-wise, that rotation should have been like a 5-5.20 rotation.

Not that that's positive

Dave in London

2:20

Does Healy's injury open the door for Vogelbach to establish himself as a major leaguer? Seems to have a much better strike-zone judgment than Healy or Ford.

Dan Szymborski

2:20

The M's have seemed curiously uninterested in him

Sharp

2:20

At what point do starter-level free agents like Moose and Neil and the CarGos accept their fate and sign as backups on a good team?

Dan Szymborski

2:20

I think when we get into March and there are minor league cuts and teams are starting to look at their 25-man rosters

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