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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/19/18
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Matt
2:34
Is Luis Castillo an ace?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:34
He's heading there
Matt
2:34
For fun, I'm working on building a projection system. I'm going to try to base it on estimating true means per season, and modeling the distribution of change by age. The game is changing enough that building it on the most recent 10 years of data should be relatively sufficient, right?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:34
I'm not sure that it's changed much for *this* purpose.
Chuncey Wiggins
2:34
What is your ideal game of baseball to watch? Is it more home run focused? Lots of steals? 17 mound visits?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:35
I just want a variety and for the late innings to be competitive
Franklin
2:35
Which youngster is the better offensive player this year and going forward... Buxton or Mazara?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:35
Mazara, though Buxton obviously better overall
Though Buxton morre valuable in fantasy
Ode to Oddities
2:35
Someone in Sawchik's chat mentioned that Cozart was projected by PECOTA for .4 WARP this year. He has averaged 4.5 WARP/600 past 3 years. Thoughts?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:35
I don't run PECOTA!  You'd have to ask Rob McQuown or someone.
Matt
2:36
If you were to put a Monday between two pieces of bread, is that a Thursday Sandwich? or a hot dog?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:36
Why wouldn't it be a Monday sandwich?
nh
2:36
thoughts on a potential panik-lagares swap?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:36
Would actually be fun
The Ghost of Wade Boggs
2:36
Considering how bad they're projected to in the foreseeable future and how much money they've had come off the books, if the Tigers were to hypothetically use that money to sign both Harper and Machado, how far away from the playoffs would they still be?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:36
They'd probably be an 80 win team right now
nh
2:36
how many versions of predictive models did you play with before settling on the formula for zips?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:37
Never did FULL versions, but I have the shells of a lot of different ideas in my old spreadsheet dump folder
Walker
2:37
How many 2018 wins would a team currently built from free agents have?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:37
They'd be in the bottom half of the league.
2:38
Probably somewhere around 70 wins
B
2:38
I realize JD Martinez is a better player than Corey Dickerson. But, wouldn't the Red Sox be wise to explore signing Dickerson rather than Martinez? They could probably get Dickerson for 1/10th of the cost.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:38
They're not in a position for thrift.
They're a serious contender.  Their goal should be to beat New York, not fall short of the Yankees in an efficient manner.
Ross
2:38
What do you expect from Robbie Ray? Buy him as an ace, or will he regress?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:39
He's an ace
That Guy in Detroit
2:39
If the Tigers trade Fulmer, what kind of value do you think he'd bring back?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:39
He'd get a serious package for sure.  I
William
2:39
Can you explain (or send me somewhere to understand) how ZiPs "generates player projections on the fly / is a nonparametric model"? This seems different from, for instance, Pecota...
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:39
PECOTA works in similar fashion, as did the first projection system that took this approach that I'm aware of, the Elias Baseball Analyst one in the late 80s
2:40
There are no "pre-cooked" curves.
Bob Sacamano
2:41
Is it just me or did Stephen Piscotty slip through ZiPS projections? Any chance the master list comes out soon?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:41
As I said!
Diego Szymborski
2:41
I think you might have gotten some of my emails.  Can you forward them to me?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:41
heh
Matt
2:41
I came into work on my day off and haven't accomplished anything. I blame you, Dan Szymborski.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:41
Destroying the economy, one chat at a time
Roadhog
2:41
Prediction: Moustakas gets a 2 year deal to play LF
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:41
He's not that exciting as a LF
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