JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 2/20/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 2/20/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

And away we go!

Wrights_Back

12:01

What would the Mets have to give up to get Cease - if he is available?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I think the closer we get to the season, the more the Padres will hang onto him.

12:03

The Mets would certainly have to give up something real. YOu can probably fatten the offer a bit with guys the Padres have more reason to like than the Mets.

12:04

Like Clifford, who is probably more useful to San Diego, but you're not going to land him with JUST Clifford

I kinda get the idea that the mets are happyw ith their rotation, and not likely to meet a rich price

Klubot3000

12:04

Top 500 ZiPS, Top 500 ZiPS, Top 500 ZiPS!

It's all the people are clamoring for, Dan! (but for real, thanks as always for the ZiPS view into prospects). It would be cool to break down the offensive vs defensive split between the WAR for the players on the top 100. Or even better, doing a 'tools' breakdown where we can see how the ZiPS creator thinks each prospect will earn his stripes in a similar manner to the scouting breakdowns (Hit/power/speed/defense).

Cheers!

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I don't like doing the whole 500 because the farther down you go, the less meaningful the differences are abetween the prospects

12:05

And just from a projection standpoint, I don't like using ZiPS for things that I don't think ZiPS provides value for

Klubot3000

12:05

Looking at some pitching prospects that missed your top 100 but seem to project well by ZiPS 26/27: why did Lucas Braun, Noah Cameron, Joe Rock, Braxton Ashcroft, Thomas Harrington, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, and KC Hunt miss? How far down the list are they and could you see any of them pushing into top 100 territory this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I can't speak for each player! It's usually a function of the upside/downside projections

12:06

I think it was 2020, I started using 80/20 average instead of 50, since I felt the list was *too* happy with lower ceiling, high floor guys

12:07

ZiPS may be math, but defining what a "top prospect" *means* is philosophical

Guest

12:07

Hey Dan! Thanks for these chats, they're awesome. In an auction keeper league (3 year keepers), is it generally okay to keep guys at cost or a little higher? Do I retain a $36 Lindor (projections say he'll be worth $33), or do I throw him back and hope to use that cap space to draft a bargain (maybe even Lindor again at a cheaper price)? How firm should I stick to my preseason projected values?! Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:08

It really depends on who actually you'd realistically be able to get under your keeper rules

12:10

But just speaking so generically, given the talent at the top and the depth of shortstop, I might be inclined to re-use that cap space

especially if it didn't look like my team was strong enough to compete

12:11

Like, would McLain at half the price give you enough money to get someone you need?

That's something you have to consider

Blue

12:11

There are a few players like Hyeseong Kim who appear in the ZiPS DC projection, but not the regular ZiPS. Is there much of a difference in the projections in those areas and/or is there an update coming?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

If the player doesn't have regular ZiPS projection, the DC one is an odd database error

12:12

I have to look into it more; I accidentally didn't give Sasaki and Kim, and they had weird ZiPS DC projections that didn't affect the depth chart proejctions at all

12:13

that's kim

nwidman13

12:13

Hi Dan, do you have a favorite snack food?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I tend to not be a snacker

but my favorite snacks would be Cool Ranch Doritos and either Utz Crab or Salt & Vinegar chips

candy, mostly just Sour Patch Kids

12:14

but I mostly don't treat myself. I'm a fatass WITH a reasonably healthy diet

Pumpsie Green

12:14

Could you give a quick explanation of the differences between Zips & Zips DC? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

ZiPS DC is just ZiPS pro-rated to whateve'rs on the depth charts at the time

Smiling Politely

12:14

Dan, thx for the great work as always. Any easy-to-share thoughts on the back half of the top 100 SS? What makes Nachoooooooooooooooo so exciting to zips? Does it find Freeland's rise to be a bit too sudden?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

For one, ZiPS doesn't share the belief around the league that he's not a good defensive SS

MannyBeingManny

12:15

With Horowitz out for probably the first month or 2 of the season for the Pirates, who gets the majority of the playing time at 1B?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Since it doesn't seem to be REynolds, they probably just throw Triolo or someone there early

Rice Age Scholar

12:16

Do you know why exactly Ben Rice has the worst defensive projection of all players in baseball? Is it just because he's new to 1B or is there something based in his play there that ZiPS doesn't like

Dan Szymborski

12:16

The probability/coordinate method I use in the minors REALLY hates his defense

Chris

12:16

I was surprised to see Drake Baldwin outside of ZIPs top 200 prospects when he’s FGs 11 ranked prospect. Is there some red flag with his profile the computer is seeing?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

ZiPS just doesn't see his UPSIDE as high. He'd rank a lot higher just doing 50th percentile

12:17

And like all the catchers, he takes a hit from being a catcher

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