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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/20/26

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Dan Szymborski

2:30

I do

Dan Norman Lear

2:30

How you feeling about George Valera, the Comeback Kid?

Dan Szymborski

2:31

i'm wait and see. it wasn't like he played a LOT in 2025

drplantwrench

2:31

this will probably get stones thrown at me, but as a coder i find AI extremely overrated

Dan Szymborski

2:32

The thing is, AI is a lot less popular with the public. Because unlike me, the vast majority don't use it for personal amusement

2:33

Like, I can have AI write a Broadway villain song for FanGraphs. But if I were funding an *actual* Broadway production, I'd fund ACTUAL songwriters

2:34

Worried about Freddy Peralta regression? Crazy BABIP and LOB numbers last year that I didnt realize- Mets Fan

Dan Szymborski

2:34

Some, but he should still be really good

smirnov

2:35

I like chess, as you do. It's been years, but now that I'm retired, I've been watching chess matches between Marshall and Capablanca. How would you rank

Dan Szymborski

2:35

I like those old chess matches

Players used to be a lot loosere with their moves

Guest

2:35

"Wander Suero was a World Series champion!"

Alby

2:35

Is there anything worse about Cincinnati than its chili?

Dan Szymborski

2:35

No, I like hanging out in Cincy quite a lot

A Boy Named Yu

2:36

Breaks my heart hearing about Kris Bryant's back issues, both for his career and his long-term health. Have you done a Zips what-if with him?

Dan Szymborski

2:36

Not yet, I hate to do it too often when a player is still active

smirnov

2:36

Curling is my favorite winter Olympics sport.

Dan Szymborski

2:36

I'm a sucker for skiing, especially downhill/super g

TKDC

2:36

Have you practiced typing “April” yet? Are you ready?

Dan Szymborski

2:36

I was born ready

OK, maybe not, since I was born in June

A Boy Named Yu

2:36

What is the Summer Olympics sport equivalent to Curling? Not literally, but a sport no one really plays that enraptures people once every 4 years like Curling does during the Winter games.

Dan Szymborski

2:37

that has the audience? there rpobably isn't a comparable one

2:38

maybe dressage?

I see a LOT of horse dancing tweets when summer olympics comes around

though more people should pay attention to modern pentathlon, because the mix of events is batshit wonderful

2:39

(running, obstacle course, laser pistol, swimming, fencing)

It's literally similar to playing Skyrim

(with archery in for the pistol)

Oaktown Blues

2:39

Is max EV a direct input in ZiPS? I know ZiPS must account for EV in some way, but I'm curious which of max/90th percentile/average it utilizes

Dan Szymborski

2:39

ZiPS uses average and 80th

Ryan other than D

2:40

Assuming days rest is a decent predictor of relief pitchers' performance, do teams' tendencies ever make a meaningful impact in projecting relief performance? For instance, teams less likely to pitch top relievers in consecutive days?

Dan Szymborski

2:40

I haven't found a large factor

Daniel

2:40

I'm sorry to ask such a common and probably annoying question, but are we really sure teams value defense at anywhere close to the level that war is implying? Specifically, kind of bad defense at positive positional adjustment positions. ex: Eugenio Suarez signed with the reds as a 1B / DH. Its reasonable to expect him to end somewhere between -10 and -15 runs (defensively) in 2026. As a 3B, at the very least, you could've expect him to be around ~0.0 runs in 2026 (he's had at least 0.0 def as a 3b in each of the last 4 years). Zips has him at a 1.3 war proj with this -15.7 def, and it'd probably be closer to a 3.0 proj if he was at 3b. There are countless other examples, but, if the value of a kind of bad 3B was really that much more than a DH, then wouldn't Eugenio Suarez get paid more money and sign as a 3B somewhere? There are a bunch of other examples too. He could put up a decent amount of WAR if he only played catcher, and this would line up with a higher salary than the 2M he's getting paid.

Dan Szymborski

2:40

I tihnk teams are a few runs less generally, but are pretty close to WAR in thinking along these lines

few runs fewer sorry

2:41

If they weren't, you wouldn't see them back off 1B/cOF big deals compared to last generation

2:42

and if they didn't care about positional value so much, Suarez does way better than 1/15 after his season!

Guest

2:42

Anyone who thinks themself badass now is selling something

Dan Szymborski