JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/3/20

Dan Szymborski

2:02

We are here, Live from Szym's Baseball Nerdery Lab, which primarily consists of computers and cat toys.

Jared

2:03

Thoughts on the rumored Mookie for Verdugo, Downs trade?

Dan Szymborski

2:04

I'll have more when/if it happens (I'm on the instant react). Now we're getting into reality territory, unlike those fanciful Lux/May scenarios.

Justin

2:04

Would it be stupid to start Billy Hamilton in CF, and then pinch hit for him once he comes up in a medium-to-high leverage situation? My gut says this is doable with 26 man roster.

Dan Szymborski

2:05

The thing is, he makes situations *worse* overall. The standard defensive replacement is a better thing, because you're leveraging the thing he does when you *know* he's valuable.

Relatively speaking.

It's a bit like starting your worst pitcher and then removing him at the first high-leverage situation; well, your worst starting pitcher is going to create a lot of very low leverage situations!

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy

2:05

Dan have you ever projected a team of comps? Can you simulate the comp team playing against the actual big league team? Would doing this maybe test the accuracy of the projections and comps - should the comp team tie the big league team? Help me thru my Monday I lost my car keys .....

Dan Szymborski

2:06

It doesn't quite work like this - comps aren't based on the projection results, but on the baseline from where the player starts.

And the individual names are interesting, but it's the large group of similar-ish players that matters.

Pete

2:06

What is your take on the Mookie Betts trade rumors? If you were Boston which trade package would you prefer LA or SD?

Dan Szymborski

2:06

Did we get a concrete Padres offer? I'm hung over and my stomach is sour from buffalo wings.

Bryan

2:07

What do you & ZIPS think of Austin Riley this year and in the future? Will hr

Dan Szymborski

2:07

I'm about where ZiPS is on this one. And he can be found in the Braves ZiPS!

Bryan

2:07

What do you and the ZiPS machine think of Austin Riley this year and into the future? Does he have some star-level years in him, is he going to be kind of "meh", or will he lose the starting 3B gig to Camargo and be a perennial quad-A guy?

Dan Szymborski

2:07

I'm not sure about star level, but I think he'll be a decent starter for several years at his peak.

twisting my melon

2:07

Could the Giants pick up Dominic Smith by paying Familia or Lowrie's contract (ala the Cozart deal)? What would a Belt for Clint Frazier trade look like?

Dan Szymborski

2:08

I'm not sure the Yankees would have any interest in the second one.

The Giants might be able to do that.

bosoxforlife

2:08

I can't wait for the 2/23/20 chat. I have never made a trip to the future before.

Dan Szymborski

2:08

CRAPPO

2:09

Fixed!

Adam

2:09

What % chance do you give of Betts ending up on the Dodgers/Padres/back in Boston when Opening Day rolls around?

Dan Szymborski

2:09

70/20/10

Padres smell more Bryanty to me.

Elliott

2:09

Fangraphs Chat: In Which Dan Unveils the Power of Time Travel: "Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/23/20 will begin on: February 3, 2020 at 2:00 PM EST"

Christian

2:09

Do you have any favorite articles among the SABR writing award nominees?

Dan Szymborski

2:10

I don't want to say because I know so many of the people.

Future Chat

2:10

F U T U R E C H A T
U
T
U
R
E
C
H
A
T

Erik

2:10

With the Chiefs winning the 2019 Super Bowl, the Royals winning the 2015 World Series, the Kansas Jayhawks being perennially good in college basketball, and the Blues winning the 2019 Stanley Cup, Kansas sports fans have a lot to be thankful for. Conversely, which city or state currently has the *least* to be thankful for in the sports world?

Dan Szymborski

2:11

Montana?

They're blacked out from freaking Mariners games, as if someone's going to drive 12 hours to catch the Mariners square off against the Royals.

Jim Leyland Palmer

2:11

Do the Reds head into the season with their current corner OF logjam or do they make a move?

Dan Szymborski

2:11

I think they start the season with the mess.

2:12

Suarez's injury isn't good of course, but temporarily having Moose back at 3rd and Senzel at 2nd helps delay Decision Time

ECinDC

2:12

How do Stras's initial projections from when he broke into the league look now, a decade into his career? From best prospect ever, to "disappointment" to WS MVP, he's gotten there but I wonder what ZiPS initially saw.

Dan Szymborski

2:12

Hmm

Hang on

This will be a bit of a slow answer, but blame ECinDC

2:16

Here are his yearly projections

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