JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/25/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/25/21

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D

12:35

Dan, why do we now have to sign in to give a thumbs up or down to a comment on an article? It's kind of a hassle.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I didn't know it was one way or the other!

D

12:35

Have you heard anything about Yasiel Puig? Do you think he will play this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I've heard jack-squat about Puig. For all I know, he could have become a Tibetan monk

JC

12:40

Bryant doesn't make that much contact and doesn't hit the ball that hard. Where does his success come from?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

When he *does* hit hard, he hits hard though.

He's awlays been a good fastball hitter

12:41

I can't do it quickly.

12:42

But I bet he has a fairly high EV variance

It's better to hit 5 pitches 110 MPH and 5 pitches 60 MPH than hit 10 pitches 85.

Kyler

12:42

Have you ever messed with Spring Training stats at all? I know they are mostly meaningless, especially for established players, but I'm just curious if in a year like this with much less previous season data if some spring training stats might help provide a little more clarity on some players, especially prospects who didn't have a minor league season.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I have verified Rosenheck's work that demonstrates a tiny, but real advantage to including them for the upcoming season

12:43

But weirdly, long-term projections get slightly *worse* if you include last year's stats

Rodney

12:43

If Ohtani can perform at the level he did in 2018 and sustains it over 20 starts and 100+ games as a DH, is he the AL MVP?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

He could be, but that's a pretty big ask!

Regression

12:43

Any ideas who had the biggest changes from 2020 ZIPs to 2021 ZIPs? I see Keston Hiura was projected to be a 115 OPS+ before being awful last year and is now 102.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

That's also one of my yearly conceits!

Chet Manley

12:44

I know this isn’t a fantasy chat... but I’m in the deep stages of a 50 round D&H and looking for some late power. Travis Shaw, Dan Vogelbach or Mitch Moreland?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Swing along with Mitch

He was legitimately good in 2020 and has the easiest playing time path by far

Jake Odorizzi

12:46

I'm bored, Dan.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

STONKS

Yasiel Puig

12:46

Will I get a major league deal or just an invitation to ST at this point? I've heard nothing about who might be interested.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think Puig could still get an MLB deal

Not a big one

Jonathan

12:46

Your service time solution is genius

Dan Szymborski

12:46

A genius one would be one that owners would agree to. They would not agree to mine.

12:47

Though I'd like to see the MLBPA at least get some small percentage of the salary for a service time "refund" just to get it established

Moose_Bolton

12:48

Hello Dan. What is is the best musical group/artist you have discovered within the last year?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I don't think I listened to a lot of new music this year

12:49

Looking at my media monkey times played, the band I did not own any music of before 2020 that saw the most play was Great Lakes Myth Society

Doug

12:51

What would the be the equivalent to an NFL QB be in WAR? The starting 5? The entire pitching staff?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Entire pitching staff might not be a bad comparable

Steve'O

12:52

Keep hearing the Rocks talk about McMahon's new swing. Are you buying it? Possible 30 hr breakout?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

If the Rockies like it, I probably don't

laughing

1

Appa Yip Yip

12:52

What teams are you most looking forward to watching from a pure entertainment baseball is fun perspective?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Padres

brad penny for your thoughts

12:52

was that a confederate butterfly statue you were tearing apart?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

She wanted me to pretend the butterfly thing was a fighter jet.

When a very nice youngish woman you're close to wants a photo of you pretending to strafe a village in a butterfly, you do it.

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