Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/16
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Dan Szymborski
11:59
We get signal.
Main screen turn on.
Rick
11:59
ZiPS projection for wRC+ is on the individual player pages, but not on the mass spreadsheet or compiled projections page. Is there any way to fix this?
Dan Szymborski
12:00
No, because I don't calculate wRC+
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:00
I saw on the Brewers ZiPS page that O. Arcia is projected to be a +2 WAR player. Is that all in the defense? He's hit well, but nothing above AA ball.
Dan Szymborski
12:00
A 20-year-old hitting like that in AA isn't something to poo-poo.
12:01
Since we're back on a normal schedule, ther ewill be a LIghtning Round, so once again starring the off-topic Qs
Big Joe Montferrant
12:02
On the Ichiro times to 1st. I read up on speedy players from all time, and Bo Jackson was clocked at 3.66 from the right side of the plate. But Mickey Mantle has been clocked multiple times at 3.1 seconds, even if we add .2 or .3 seconds of human error, that is still 3.3 or 3.4 seconds to first. Do you believe he was THAT fast? (he has the highest SB% ever by a HOFer, is 7-8 on bunts in WS play, and mythically, many many people are quoted as saying he is "the fastest man they had ever seen")
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:02
If you had to guess, what would you predict will be the most meaningful change to happen after the next round of CBA negotiations?
Dan Szymborski
12:03
Why is it picking two at once?
12:04
It's certainly possible that Mantle ran that fast. Let's say a guy runs a 3.3. I don't have historical 30 yard attempts, but it's not crazy when you look at 40s.
12:05
Now, worse starting position, but Mantle wasn't quite running all 90 feet hitting from the right side either.
12:06
Now when was Bo clocked from the right side of the plate? He didn't hit lefthanded.
Question two: I think nothing will be meaningful.
12:07
There's been a lot of labor peace and both parties don't have serious enough reasons to have a fight
Mike
12:07
Ian Desmond has to fire his agent, right? Bad season or not he has to get a better offer than 1/8 from somebody?
Dan Szymborski
12:08
It's hard to say how much is *his* fault. Agents represent players, they don't simply decide what to do and cut the player out of decisions.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:08
Are you ready for real baseball games to just freaking start already?
Dan Szymborski
12:08
Yes.
Bork
12:08
Did the Rangers look at the Red Sox and just decide "HA LOOK AT THEIR MISTAKE, IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN TO US, RIGHT GUYS, RIGHT??"
Dan Szymborski
12:08
I don't understand the context of this question.
Ryan
12:08
Is it easier to project hitting or pitching. I.e., are your hitting or pitching projections more accurate?
Dan Szymborski
12:08
Well hitters, simply because hitters are more consistent.
Andrew
12:09
Do you have different levels of confidence in what ZiPS is forecasting, based on the sample size of the data? i.e. would you be more confident in the forecast for a second year player with 300 career plate appearances vs. a veteran with 3000? Or does ZiPS weigh the data appropriately, giving you roughly the same confidence level regardless?
Dan Szymborski
12:09
There are in fact different levels of confidence. AMount of history is pretty important.
/sp/
12:11
how often do you personally disagree with the projections? Right now Boston is seen with a 50% chance to win the division.
Dan Szymborski
12:11
I don't have them at 50%.
Trevor Story
12:12
Am I the opening day SS in Colorado?
Dan Szymborski
12:13
I don't believe so. No reason for Rockies to start the clock ticking. Even if Story wins the competition, it still make sense for Adames to start opening day.
Riley
12:13
I took Andrew Benintendi in the minor league portion of my fantasy baseball draft, ahead of Dansby and Rodgers... Smart?
Dan Szymborski
12:13
Ahead of Dansby is quite aggressive.
12:14
As is Rodgers, simply because Coors is a thing.
12:16
Not to mention that you get nothing from him being a centerfielder in typical formats.
Big Joe Montferrant
12:16
Eovaldi or Pineda in 2016, and why??
Dan Szymborski
12:16
Pineda if I need upside, Eovaldi certainty.
Archie
12:16
It seems like ZiPS likes Dilson Herrera more than most. Do you think more playing time is in store?
Dan Szymborski
12:16
Should be, but Mets aren't in a hurry.
Vic
12:17
Will ZIPS be a part of the auction calculator?
Dan Szymborski
12:17
No idea.
Hans Von Spankovsky
12:17
Has there ever been someone like Desmond, turning down 108mill switching positions contracting the yips and getting paid peanuts?
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