Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/16
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Mark
1:05
Let's say Jamie Moyer stuck around to age 300, would he be a HoFer?
Dan Szymborski
1:05
If he could pitch for four times the average *lifespan* as a person, that's a HOFer easy
Zonk
1:05
Austin Jackson was rumored to turn down a 1 yr/ $6 mil offer from Angels. Several teams could use him, yet nobody wants to open the wallet. What is your A-Jax prediction? Strange to have a non-QO guy lasting this long, isn't it?
Dan Szymborski
1:06
Teams just aren't valuing decent veterans how they used to
Kevin
1:06
Chris Mitchell posted an article today reflecting on 2006's top prospects, in retrospect. How often do you look back at ZiPS forecasts and evaluate how accurate they were? Do you find certain types of players (e.g. contact-first hitters, or pitchers who induce lots of popups as totally random examples) 'break the forecast' more often than not?
Dan Szymborski
1:06
Bias is an easier thing to get right than accuracy.
senpaisanto
1:06
Leo the Lion
1:06
How old is the data that you use to build the prediction for ZiPS? Is it based off of all players who have ever played? Just the last X years? Do you weight more recent data more than older data?
Dan Szymborski
1:06
I weight recent data more highly.
1:07
There's a lot of data in there - MLBers going back to the dead-ball era and minor leaguers into the early 1970s.
But if you notice the top comps, there are a lot more recent guys than old-timers.
dbet
1:08
Do you remember any crazy projections that ZIPs made that were wildly different than other systems?
Dan Szymborski
1:08
ZiPS absolutely trashed Hamilton going into his first year with the Angels, far worse than everyone. And was still high!
Ampersand
1:10
As a ZiPS noob: Do projected PA include the minors?
Dan Szymborski
1:10
Yes. ZiPS is agnostic about who a team likes. Intentionally so.
j6takish
1:11
Downward plane is a big deal, short guys are going to have issues keeping the ball down
Dan Szymborski
1:11
But you're already assuming everything else is equal.
Err we're
RMR
1:11
ZiPS player comps are for that player's performance in the same age season, correct? In other words, Anthony Desclafani and Homer Bailey aren't getting the good version of Mike Scott.
Dan Szymborski
1:12
Yeah, but there's some give. ZiPS prefers a 24 year-old be compared to 24-year-olds ideally, but other stuff is a bigger factor than whether the guy's 25 or 23
el gasino
1:12
settle an argument with my friend: ped's are responsible for the offensive boom of the late '90's/2000's, correct?
Dan Szymborski
1:14
It would be very odd for everyone to discover a drug between the end of 1992 and the start of 1994 that had been around for 35 years, had been used by at *least* one marginal player in the early 1970s. And then no drug use increase after 1994.
Becasue that's essentially the "PEDs caused offense" storyline.
JB
1:15
Any particular reason why Sonny Gray is so low on most radars?
Dan Szymborski
1:15
He's probably walking or driving and not utilizing a plane or a glider or some form of dirigible.
el gasino
1:16
when will we see robot umps?
Dan Szymborski
1:16
2040.
We're behind. Super Nintendo had us with robot *players* in 2020 and it's already 2016, so there would need to be some good prototypes by now
Bork
1:16
Robot umps would open up so much for the MLB. Like, they could auction off the ability to record your voice yelling strikes/balls/out and the umps would use it for an inning. SO MUCH REVENUE OPPORTUNITY MLB. HIRE ME.
RMR
1:17
Robert Eenhorn, a player who never got more than 34 major league PAs is the #1 comp for Zack Cozart. What am I missing? MLEs?
Dan Szymborski
1:17
Yes
mtsw
1:17
Who do you think is the most unique major leaguer ever?
Dan Szymborski
1:17
I'm going to have to penalize you for most unique.
lampz
1:18
how would robot umps toss players/managers?
Dan Szymborski
1:19
Lasers? A giant net? Knockout gas? Dart gun? Lots of ways
Bork
1:19
Too lazy to google. Has there ever been a sidearm throwing knuckleballer? If so, how would it even work?
Dan Szymborski
1:19
Cicotte.
There are different spins.
1:20
Cicotte's knuckler had this weird forkbally action in there, reportedly
Matt
1:20
If we ever do get robot umps, do you envision them being more Wall-E or Terminator?
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