Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/8/16
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Dan Szymborski
12:16
He should be, simply because he's not the New Guys Choice
Splits
12:16
If Jason Heyward projects for 4+ WAR, and the market is paying 7.5-8 million per, why didn't he get a contract worth upwards of 30 million a year? Even with the opt-out, it seems like a major bargain to get his production for 21-22 million per year.
Dan Szymborski
12:16
I'm not buying $8 million.
wobawoba
12:16
Dan - is zips calculating wOBA differently than the conventional/current/FG defintion? IE, as I see it it's purely a metric of what happens at the plate - neither park nor baserunning adjusted - yet I see VMart at a .280/.340/.450 line and a .323 wOBA while Starling Marte is more like .280/.335/.445 ... with ZIPS-wOBA about 30 points higher. What gives?
Dan Szymborski
12:16
I do not calculate the wOBAs that are on FanGraphs - it's not part of my basic readout.
Greg
12:18
Baseball's unwritten rules exist, i get that, and I dk what they all are. Looking at the Phillies, why do they still have Charlie Morton? Does it really matter if they win 65 or 60 games in this rebuilding year? Couldn't they get something for Morton now and not wait until June?
Dan Szymborski
12:18
I think at this point, the Phillies just want games to end.
Cory S.
12:19
Which division is most likely to finish in alphabetical order using their team name not city? AL Central?
Dan Szymborski
12:19
That would be interesting to actually simulate.
12:20
At a glance, I think it would be NL West
The Diamondbacks are an upside-hitting year away from a Diamondbacks/Dodgers/Giants/Padres/Rockies finish which is plausible
12:21
Arizona isn't the favorite, but they're close enough that there lots of scenarios in which they win
Steve
12:23
Do you see Patrick Corbin as a good comparsion for Blake Snell?
Dan Szymborski
12:23
Not really. They're different types of pitchers
Cory S.
12:23
Do you think that pitching is responsible for 81 potential wins and hitting the other 81; or is it divided into 54/54/54 with fielding taking a third of the potential wins?
Dan Szymborski
12:23
I don't think you can divide things up that simply.
Sharkmardzija
12:23
Can I return to my old form in SF?
Dan Szymborski
12:23
I think you'll be fine
EC
12:24
Curious as to what your thoughts are on the NFL HOF. Seems like it operates as a Hall of Very Good, as opposed to MLB where it's impossible to get in unless you're an actual legend. Would it open the Hall to younger folks if it was operated a bit similar to NFL?
Dan Szymborski
12:24
It might be. A lot of football is more a team concept than baseball once you get past the name players at the skill positions
Eric
12:24
Why did the O's sign Chris Davis and O'Day and then give up on trying to be competitive in the next 3 years?
Dan Szymborski
12:24
They're taking a weird middle ground
CamdenWarehouse
12:24
Did you run Marlins projections before and after the news about the fences? How much impact was there?
Dan Szymborski
12:24
No. Pure guesswork.
12:25
I rather project to something that was known and leave it up in the air as a what if than project to something that I just make up
I Like Eggs
12:25
You're my fourth favorite Szymborski of all time.
Dan Szymborski
12:25
You know a lot more Szymborskis than the average person. At least four.
Andrew
12:25
Without going into detail, how does ZiPS (generally) forecast the defensive contribution of prospects or players with little service time? As far as I know data on the defensive ability of minor league players is pretty limited, so what is used in the calculation?
Dan Szymborski
12:26
I have a total zone-esque method and a scouting report parser to shade the results (one of my nerdier things I've done, even if it's not a huge thing)
(It looks for key words and phrases, it is not a sentient program that casually reads scouting reports and reports back to me)
Steve
12:26
Is there any market for Justin Masterson?
Dan Szymborski
12:27
Couldn't call it a market.
Guest
12:27
no but seriously Billy Butler + B grade prospect for A-Rod + 10M
Dan Szymborski
12:27
Why?
OH DAMMIT IM ANSWERING QUESTIONS REVERSE CHRONOLOGICALLY SO IM BACK AT 1130 NOW
hi eno
12:27
hi dan
Dan Szymborski
12:28
Wouldn't it just be Eno? Why would he call himself Hi Eno?
Pinstripe Wizard
12:28
Now that football is actually over, does baseball seem closer?
Dan Szymborski
12:28
Yes
NutButters
12:28
I have a $10k bet that Boston will not win the division by 7 games. How would you spend my free money? (I would be willing to bet $5k that they will not win the division)
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