JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/8/24

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Chip

12:44

If you were to build a ZIPS program for fruit, what would the WAR-metric equivalent be and how many units would figs get?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Deliciousness Shares

Ceaseless Turmoil Seething

12:44

Will the White Sox regret turning down the Burnes+ package from the O's?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Yes

Ceaseless Turmoil Seething

12:45

Was the Burnes move a start or a stop to this O's off-season?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Probably a stop as there's not much offseason left

Guest

12:45

Two related questions: 1. Is it fair to say that the projections don't do as good of a job as they do the regular season?2. Do you believe that the best team always wins the World Series?
Just as with late last regular season, both projection models and experts agree that the Braves and Dodgers appear to be heavy favorites in the NL. Yet, neither made it to the NLCS. These are odds, of course, and there's a lot of room for variance, especially in the current postseason baseball.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Depends what you mean good job

Obviously, the "average" projections are worse. But the probabilities work since projections count for the uncertainty

and 2: definitely no!

Joey Caltrain

12:45

Forget figs. As an SF fan, I'd like to know how you feel about fog

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Fog's usually burned off by the time I wake up

Ghinga

12:46

I just saw Brent Honeywell signed with the pirates, on an actually baseball related note. What is your opinion of the last remaining major league screw baller?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I'm unconvinced Devin Williams doesn't throw a screwball

but I'm all for screwballs

Danny Jansen's Goggles

12:46

Devin Williams basically throws a screwball

Dan Szymborski

12:46

BEAT YOU TO IT BY LIKE SEVEN SECONDS

Guest

12:46

Do you think ZiPS would be better at projecting baseball if there were 1000 games per season?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I guess, but you can't actually have the guys play 1000 games, it would be split squad

so practically speaking, there's probalby a peak of 300 games or so?

Altuve follow up

12:47

Thank You for your time! I have a question about the history of MI’s aging poorly. Is this a skill thing? As in they tend to accumulate value based on speed, quickness, and contact skills and those wane? If so, might Altuve extend his window of value by continuing to focus on power hitting and perhaps shifting to DH more often? He might accrue less value but remain more offensively effective that way

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Why is tricky, the what is hard enough!

Scotsman

12:48

Have you ever had Black Pudding Dan

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I have actually

its was weirdly gritty

like they put a little sand in it for filler

12:49

and it felt like I was chewing it forever but it wasn't doing anythign

David

12:49

Are there any FO’s that essentially only use predictive stats and ignore on field results?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Not that I'm aware of

but I can only make educated guesses. I talk with most front offices to some extent, but they're usually careful about WHAT they say

Danny Jansen's Goggles

12:49

Are you as optimistic about Vladdy as the projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I think so. He's still a pretty young player

12:50

I mean he doesn't turn 25 until next month

He's not a 30 year old who is up and down

Babe Ruth's Submerged Piano.

12:50

Am I a baseball relic worth displaying in the Hall of Fame? Sox fans had a theory that my removal was integral to their breaking the curse!

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I don't think so because pianos take up a huge amount of space

ZiPS me like one of your French girls

12:50

Dan, so excited for prospect week this year! Can you do more ZiPS prospecting content? Perhaps some SSS projections for more of the 2023 draftees? Go 200 deep (or at least go deeper down the list for pitchers)? It's genuinely one of the best articles every year on the site and I neeeeeed more! TY TY

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I could, but I try to keep the ZIPS ONLY content to a few select things