Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/17
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Erik
2:31
What makes ZiPS significantly higher on a guy than other systems like Steamer or PECOTA? Are there any inputs that ZiPS over- or underemphasizes compared to those systems?
Dan Szymborski
2:31
I get a similar question once a week guys. I don't know the inputs of Steamer/PECOTA, so I can't make a meaningful evaluation of the inputs.
2:32
It's a completely unanswerable question. It's like asking a historian if they think George Washington would consider a hot dog a sandwich. There's literally no inside information to go by.
Jeff Bridich
2:32
Whatever I did to hurt you, I sincerely apologize.
romorr
2:32
If the Orioles are in it, is there someone outside of Sisco you want the Orioles to hold onto? Sedlock is easy, but is there a prospect you really like that might not get a lot of pub?
Dan Szymborski
2:33
If the O's are in a pennant race and can improve, there's really nobody in the minors that you'd be heartbroken about losing for a real gain
And I'm talking about a real gain
CamdenWarehouse
2:33
Wouldn't a .300/.350 hitter be decent enough for a lead off hitter? Especially if it comes with Dyson's speed.
Dan Szymborski
2:33
The first rule of leading off is to not make outs.
2:34
So is the second rule.
The third rule is to be generally good.
Speed is like, I don't know, 11th?
Erik
2:34
Is Charlie Blackmon the most likely Rockie to be traded? I don't see Cargo bringing back much in return, and Charlie Blackmon is going to get expensive soon.
Dan Szymborski
2:34
Yeah, but who knows WTF the Rockies are doing. They're playing Ian Desmond at 1B and wasted last year's trade deadline completely.
976
2:34
Should Hyun-soo Kim bat leadoff given his high OBP, or no because he's not a base stealing threat? Also, can he hit lefties, ZiPS seemed to think he can (last year)?
Dan Szymborski
2:34
He's certainly a decent option
Bebop
2:34
what are the chances that Trevor Bauer has a better 2017 then Corrasco or Salazar?
Dan Szymborski
2:35
OR? I dunno, 30? Pitchers have pretty big error bars
Coffee
2:35
Putting aside playing time, do you think Javy Baez takes a step forward this year or will he always be a guy that cannot make contact enough to tap into his power?
Dan Szymborski
2:35
I think he'll always struggle with power
Bebop
2:35
if you're Dave Roberts, does Brock Stewart make your starting five? (assuming Kershaw, Maeda, Urias and Hill are 1-4)
Dan Szymborski
2:35
No.
romorr
2:35
Is it wrong to hope the Orioles struggle? I really think the best thing the Orioles can do is sell off some guys who have some team control to restock the farm. It was obvious this year that money is tight, too tight to add obvious upgrades.
Dan Szymborski
2:36
It's a situation of mixed feelings. More like you don't want the O's to struggle, but if they *do* happen to struggle, you want to be bad enough that they make serious changes
40:39;6
2:36
What are the advanced stats on parents love? I'm pretty sure 976 wants to see how he can use them to game DMB
Dan Szymborski
2:36
Time of possession?
Like your dad's time spent with you as a percentage of his free time?
2:37
A corrector for distance away?
If your dad lives 5 minutes away and you haven't seen him since Easter, he might not be that into you.
Hot Dogs are Sandwiches
2:39
Where do zWAR and fWAR differ?
Dan Szymborski
2:39
FIP stuff, slightly different park factor
Matt
2:39
Cistulli makes graphs but is not a fan. Shouldn't he go work for JustGraphs?
Dan Szymborski
2:39
He's busy making the new site that they leaked earlier
2:40
Donkey Tonker Honker
2:40
Last night I threw a no-hitter with Shacho and his 42mph heater against the American Dreams. Anything is possible.
Dan Szymborski
2:41
The key in Baseball stars is jamming them inside. You can *really* induce bad contact in Baseball Stars
John
2:41
Are you all working on fixing the new Black search bar at the top of the site to work on Ipad? I’m sure you’ve heard, but it’s not working at all on Ipad. Thanks!
Dan Szymborski
2:41
I'm not working on that.
Nolan Arenado
2:41
When do I make the playoffs?
Dan Szymborski
2:41
You could make it in the next few years. I don't think the Rockies are well-run at the MLB level, but they've pushed through enough minor league talent tha tthey can brute force a wild card run or two
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