JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/19/2020

Mac

1:03

Does ZiPS come with standard deviations? If so who has the largest assuming you’re able to leave playing time out of equation (Otherwise it would just be the large difference between healthy Trout and out for the season Trout)?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

Happy Thursday!

I don't specifically spit out a standard deviation, but I do it from the other side: specific events and the probability of those (like a .300 BA, 40 HR, etc)

1:04

And I have projectile percentages in beta right now as I work out the kinks, mainly due to defensive volatility and projections

LAXTONTO

1:04

Can you do my online recordings for my grad students for me?

Aceman

1:04

Dynasty

LAXTONTO

1:04

I like pizza and beer... do you like pizza and beer?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Do I have ot know the material? I could read something, though I don't know why anyone would want to hear my voice unless they were seeking out me specifically

TKDC

1:06

I’ve been working from home for four days and I’ve determined I’d rather dig ditches for a living than do this. How on Earth does one manage this full time? Perhaps baseball on TV makes a big difference.

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I've got a lot of fun stuff to do at my house!

And you learn to multitask a lot of things at once to keep you moving.

1:07

Before the chat, I was playing Anno 1800, listening to Nielsen symphonies, working on my peice for tomorrow, and discussing an idea I have to live stream Opening Day on FanGraphs with MLBtheShow and us casting!

Dave

1:08

Are we going to see bold predictions coming soon?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

Bold: There will be some games in 2020.

LAXTONTO

1:08

Can you set up an optimization algorithm around ZIPS to determine the optimal season length for each team to have the greatest likelihood for making the playoffs..

Dan Szymborski

1:08

I could, though it might not be interesting.

1:09

For great teams, it's always going to be more, for lousy teams, less. It's the middle class that is interesting

LAXTONTO

1:09

This forced isolation sucks man

Aceman

1:09

Dynasty,Can receive either Bo or Glyber on my end of trade....who you like?I'm leaning Bo

Dan Szymborski

1:09

I'd personally go Gleyber but I like Boba Chett, too.

LAXTONTO

1:09

They would be very surprised that it wasnt me

Mookie

1:09

Any fun trade ideas for the Dodgers moving Joc Pederson before the season?

Dan Szymborski

1:09

It's really too bad the Angels trade did not go through.

I thought both teams actually got a benefit

And the Angels should have stayed with it. They need Joc, I think

Sir Nerdlington

1:10

Can you speculate on why teams work similar 162 projections had vastly different 81-game projections? League differences, player variability, health, ???

Dan Szymborski

1:10

There are a few things. One, team quality is wider because stuff "evens out" less.

And things like injuries don't proportionally get shorter.

In a 15 game season, *every* injury that requires an IL trip means the player is out for the entire season

LAXTONTO

1:10

Who is having a harder time with this forced isolation? You or the cats? I know they are probaly saying "Does he EVER leave"?

Dan Szymborski

1:10

I think me because my mom comes around constantly since *she's* in isolation (across the street)

1:12

It took her two days of working at home for her to start re-thinking her retirement in August.

She's been bored and bugging me non-stopper than usual

Andrew

1:12

Could you see the minor league season being canceled and instead they just play games at their spring training sites? Could play through November

Dan Szymborski

1:12

That is a possibility

I think full crowds *might* be out this year for MLB. But I think the situation might get to the point they can at least play at empty stadiums.

There's a *lot* of TV money at stake

1:13

and I think they'll do any desperate idea to keep from there not being a season at all.

DB8

1:13

Yeah, no excuse now not to clean out the garage, closet, sock drawer, spider webs, where’s my shovel!

DJ Tanner

1:13

Have you played OOTP? I just preordered for their release tomorrow and am hoping it will be a fun alternative to no real baseball or fantasy baseball

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