Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/21/16
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Dan Szymborski
12:37
I do not believe so.
Otis
12:38
Better chance of cracking opening day roster, Max Kepler or Jabari Blash?
Dan Szymborski
12:38
Weird either/or but at least it's not "rank my 17 keepers"
12:39
I believe Blash - Kepler full time at AAA makes sense.
CamdenWarehouse
12:39
I'm generally of the opinion that chemistry is the result of performance and not the other way around, but I have to think that the White Sox clubhouse situation is not so good right now. Do you think it will impact them this year?
Dan Szymborski
12:39
I doubt it.
Remember how disappointing they were last year *with* Drake's veteran leadership.
Trainman
12:39
Do the Angels have the highest probability of a team that has the highest ceiling but could crash and burn to the bottom of their division?
Dan Szymborski
12:39
Those odds are probably the Mike Trout injury odds.
Richard
12:40
Anyone you're looking forward to watching in the Cuban game tomorrow?
Dan Szymborski
12:40
Really all the Cubans that play are interesting - we've seen all the Rays
Scott
12:40
Giants fans have been spoiled rotten with this kind of thing but do a Randal Grichuk type emergence in Mac Williamson this year?
Dan Szymborski
12:40
I wouldn't go nuts yet.
Bork
12:40
The Jays play the White Sox April 25th. How great would it be if Toronto had a Drake day and just invited their Drake instead of Laroche?
phil
12:42
Does KEON BROXTON look like he won the job in CF? What do you think of him?
Dan Szymborski
12:42
Seems like that's what they're going with, but I think his glove will make him a real MLBer, but his bat will keep him below BA.
Johnny5Alive
12:42
I forgot, when you project at bats for ZiPS, is that taking into account playing time? Just curious since for some folks there are big discrepancies between depth charts and ZiPs, but I thought you included playing time projections in your model.
Dan Szymborski
12:42
PT projections only for team stuff and fantasy projections.
For vanilla projections, ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time
Frank
12:43
Dan, I am very much on the Mookie Betts bandwagon. I know a lot of people like him, so it's impossible for him to be underrated. But, I truly feel that he is going to break out in a MAJOR way and be an MVP candidate. Do you think Mookie Betts has a chance to be a top 5 MVP candidate in the AL?
Dan Szymborski
12:43
Wouldn't be that crazy - ZiPS has him 4th in the AL in WAR among position players already!
War2d2
12:43
With Jon Lester's elbow now in the news to go along with his inability to throw to a base that doesn't rhyme with "gnome," what are your feelings on the long-term outcome of that contract? Do you think ultimately it'll be a bad deal for the Cubs? Once age or injury reduces Lester to an average pitcher it seems like the rest of the package (worst fielding pitcher in baseball, worst hitter in history) will plummet him to replacement level far faster than would be expected for a one-time ace.
Dan Szymborski
12:43
I think it'll be OK. Not great, but not horrible.
12:44
I'm not as worried about a bone chip.
HotGraphs
12:44
How bad does Ryan Howard have to be before the Phillies finally stop playing hi?
Dan Szymborski
12:44
I keep think he hits that threshold but somehow still gets play.
Champ
12:44
What's your thought on Castellanos stepping up in production this year?
Dan Szymborski
12:45
I've soured a bit on him - he just hasn't shown much progress.
Uther
12:45
Does batting order matter over the long term? Say the Reds batted Votto leadoff all season as opposed to batting him third, for example. What sort of impact would you think that change would have on wins / runs scored?
Dan Szymborski
12:45
Very little.
Justin
12:45
You've said that you manually adjust playing time estimates in ZIPS, but are there ever situations where the projection for a player is just so ridiculous that you feel the urge to manually adjust the actual projection as well?
Dan Szymborski
12:45
No.
12:46
It's the ZIPS projection system, not the ZiPSandwhateverSzymborskiarbitrarilychanges projection system
ZIPSSWARC?
wait, there's no R
BakedBean
12:46
I don't want this to sound defensive, but how long does a player like Shaw have to outperform expectations to shake off the stigma of being bad in AAA? It seems like he is fighting off stigma of low pedigree
Dan Szymborski
12:46
Again, it depends.
12:47
Performance isn't a binary thing where it's either 0 or 1 and enough time at 1 you just call a palyer a 1
I really hate this type of question because you can't make a hard-and-fast simple rule because expectations and overperformance and time are all such important variables.
Craig in Chicago
12:49
I still have the Astros. Should this McCullers news scare me, more?
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