JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/25/21

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/25/21

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Dan Szymborski

1:07

I'm not actually very angsty

1:08

One of my greatest hopes is that my final words are me joking and/or making light of my imminent demise!

Hank Scorpio

1:08

Does Zips get into if a player will stay at a position? For that 6/$165 on Correa, does Zips see him as a SS all 6 years?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

Generally speaking, yes

Though I've played with a more dynamic model

But I try to keep the interpretations from getting too confusing

Appa Yip Yip

1:09

Getting into corn/flour tortillas involves talking about the history of colonialism and imperialism which seems beyond the scope of this chat.

(flour tortillas are colonialism in action)

Morbo

1:09

How long does it take to process/update a new version of zips? Has the time measurably decreased since you switched to your 5900x?

Dan Szymborski

1:09

ZiPS is about 60% faster with a 5900x

Joe

1:10

Turns out I'm an anarchist. I also put beans in chili.

RTX 3080

1:10

Would you bet your 3080 that Luzardo has a better year than Donaldson?

Dan Szymborski

1:11

No. Why are you making me make high-stakes bets with my things?

Guest

1:11

Looking at the CF projections, I saw that Pache's defensive value is pretty low (for someone described as an 80 grade defender). Digging deeper, it looks like Steamer is actually quite pessimistic about his defense compared to ZiPS. Do you know what might account for the difference of opinion there?

Dan Szymborski

1:11

ZiPS is based on the minor league defensive data and it's conservative; the data is less accurate than a UZR/DRS approach in the majors

1:12

ZiPS had Luis Robert a +5 in CF last year coming off like a +21 season in the minors (lower before 2019)

I don't think Steamer uses any minor league defensive data

but I could be wrong

I have enough to worry about explaining ZiPS stuff without Dansplaining someone else's work!

major puig baseball

1:13

just remember that "the wallpaper and i are in a duel to the death, either it goes or i do" is already taken, last-words-wise

Travis

1:13

What do you think is the next major thing to unlock for projection systems? Is it taking the jump into more advanced ML like decision trees or neural nets? Or incorporating more granular data like spin, etc?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

We're still figuring out the best approaches to use some of the advanced data available

there's so much to sift through and we're still figuring out how predictive it is, multicollinearity, and so on

LFC Mike

1:14

If you had a Doctorate you would need the tweed coat with elbow patches and old timey pipe..as I said last week.

Dan Szymborski

1:14

On that note, time fo rme to head out for another week! Thanks for coming everyone and I'll hopefully see you in our Opening Day chat next week!

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