JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

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Dan Szymborski

12:31

Yeah, no inning counts. You can make relievers go longer too

EvilMario

12:31

Will a denser season with more double headers noticeably favor teams with deeper rotations/pens?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think so

Pat's Bat

12:31

Sorry I have huge hands ams I'm tyoing on a tiny phone

Jason

12:31

Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft:

- A draft sometime in July
- Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5
- Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July '21, 45% in July '22

Dan Szymborski

12:31

That's quite different than 10K max bonus.

Insert Clever Name Here

12:31

From your recent colleague Kiley McDaniel: Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft: - A draft sometime in July - Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5 - Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July '21, 45% in July '22

Jason

12:31

a maximum bonus for undrafted players has been discussed. Most discussed number for that is $10,000. Could push lots of high school talent to college, middle-tier college talent to return to school.

Matt Klentak

12:31

Is there any version of the future where teams dont get screwed out of a year of service? Im pro player & believe they should get paid & service time count, but just wondering options owners & club have?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I have to think there will be some compensation for teams like the Dodgers.

Because really, it would suck if they gave up Verdugo and Downs for nothing but a Betts QO comp pick.

12:33

And while the first concerns about covid-19 are the health of people, it would STILL suck if everything came up Red Sox and they ended up making one of the best trades in MLB history.

Matt Klentak

12:33

Yeah I could see compensation for teams losing guys after this season, similar to NFL compensation picks awarded for losing more FA than you gain

Insert Clever Name Here

12:33

Also, random thought, I'm now morbidly curious to know how badly an entire team of Tim Tebow and Sandy Baez (worst projected pitcher) clones would be projected to do over the course of an entire season, with Tebow projected at every single position instead of just in left field.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Probably 20-30 wins or so

Grand Admiral Braun

12:33

On Field of Dreams: any explanation of why Shoeless Joe bats right-handed? Total oversight by Costner and the director? Intentional? OR...Liotta couldn't fake it...

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Usually, those kinds of changes are actor based.

LAXTONTO

12:34

Could you use a NN to try and build a prorated season adjustment value as a multiplier for each player?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I'm not sure I'm following what my training set is. We're in uncharted waters, again.

Blue Morpho

12:34

I didn't realize you needed professional head shots done to be a prospect analyst.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Can never hurt.

Problem for me is I'd need a whole team of photographers to make me look passable, so it's not worth the expense

Jeff

12:35

Do you check out FA and reactions in other sports? I'm never not floored at how well managed the fans of NFL teams are, their one obsession is price and making sure those boys don't get too much and impact The Futuee to an extent MLB owners might be dreaming of right now

Mountie Votto

12:35

Any predictions on how guys with opt-outs will lean? I'm thinking a guy like Nick Castellanos who has yet to play with his new team but also has a pretty solid contract in place with another opt-out.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I can't imagine that anyone exercises an opt-out right now.

12:36

There's too much uncertainty about MLB's fiscal position.

What if the economy does not V or U rebound and people get used to not watching sports? There's no law of nature that requires $/win estimates to go only up.

sportznut

12:37

Do you think with the season in limbo, that's why we're seeing guys like Thor, JV, Sale, etc, going under the knife right away?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

No, because if you needed TJ surgery, you weren't going to be pitching in 2020 no matter what. Sooner is always better.

It would be different for more minor surgeries that are elective

which may be JV's category

Well, not so much elective

but certainly less severe

sportznut

12:38

They're not really going to be playing baseball in December, are they?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

They very well could. There are a lot of southern cities.

12:39

In Miami, the average January day is 76/60.

I'd rather play baseball in Miami in January than most cities in July!

Insert Clever Name Here

12:39

Also worth pointing out that everyone signed their picks in the first few rounds in 2019, so assuming the recent draft news ends up occurring, we don't get to see how a team would have responded if they had gotten a compensation pick for failing to sign their pick.

LAXTONTO

12:39

Use truncated random samples of other season and then x years of the previous stats and use that as a training set... its not the best, but its also not the worst approach. Probably still better than just prorating though

Dan Szymborski

12:40

ZiPS wouldn't naturally prorate though - it'd prorate the projections already made themselves.

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