JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/4/21

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Welcome to Dan's first ever chat using a Ryzen CPU!

dimepackage

12:02

Hey Dan. Can the ACT projections be utilized in a points league? If so, how?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I'm not sure, in what sense? As in an automatic tool? I don't really use automatic tools in fantasy.

Jimmy

12:03

3 year zips tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Should be next few days.

No link

12:03

No link on homepage of fangraphs

Dan Szymborski

12:03

Uh oh!

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:04

That Szymborski. He thinks he’s the Pope of Chili Town

James

12:04

For all of the (probably deserved) flack AJ Preller gets for how he conducts business, he seems to genuinely build goodwill in his player relationships. Learning Spanish & Japanese to communicate better, never once went to arbitration with a player, doesn’t play service time games (Paddack, Tatis). Do you think that goodwill has any sort of effect in player decisions, like the Tatis extension, however small?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I think it can have an effect on the margins. Nobody's going to give up ten millions of dollars in goodwill, but in close decisions, I can see it making a difference.

12:06

Because a team is a workplace, after all. We've all made decisions based on workplace dynamics, I'm sure!

12:08

Like when I was looking to change jobs a few years ago, my salary requirements for this position was ultimately less than it would have been for other positions elsewhere. There's a lot to be said for knowing and liking the people and being in an environment in which you can explore a lot of things.

Scott

12:08

No question, but just a general thanks for everything you all do here at FG. Been a subscriber for a couple years, and love everyone's work - especially the chat.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Thanks for your support! The support of the community was huge during the baseball interregnum last spring and early summer.

Jonah

12:08

Love the Zips percentile outcomes shown in your recent breakout hitters article! I noticed PA are held steady for all players. Have you considered (is it feasible) to bake in injury risk into these percentile outcomes?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I did, but the problem is, that the range of performance expectations ought to be different at different PA, so we end up needing either a three-dimensional graph or a rather unsatisfying ensemble result

You'd kinda end up with a situation that the percentiles will *sort of* represent the variability in performance and *sort of* represent the injury risk

12:11

In the end, projection systems are best for looking at performance variation and by keeping it set to a fixed PA, you can better represent the range in a player's abilities.

And I think people understand that injured players are likely to play worse.

I think the stats are easier to interpret doing it this way.

Leo

12:12

What does the 90th and 10th percentile outcome look like for Adley Rutschman?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Percentile BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR HBP SF 90% .258 .331 .487 530 75 137 34 0 29 85 57 102 9 119 4.4 4 8 80% .254 .321 .456 535 73 136 33 0 25 79 52 110 7 108 3.6 4 7 70% .251 .316 .439 537 71 135 32 0 23 75 50 115 6 103 3.2 4 7 60% .247 .309 .421 539 69 133 31 0 21 72 48 121 5 96 2.7 4 7 50% .246 .307 .413 540 68 133 30 0 20 71 47 125 5 94 2.5 4 7 40% .244 .304 .396 541 67 132 28 0 18 69 46 129 4 89 2.1 4 7 30% .243 .299 .392 544 67 132 27 0 18 67 43 135 3 86 1.9 3 7 20% .240 .295 .376 545 65 131 26 0 16 65 42 142 3 82 1.6 3 7 10% .239 .290 .367 548 64 131 25 0 15 62 39 153 2 78 1.3 3 6

OH GOD

12:14