JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/4/21

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12:57

I thought that Kevin Goldstein’s “Can RBIs Matter?” was very interesting. I have to say that despite being a longtime analytics fan myself, when you’re watching a baseball game, context definitely matters, which is why I think that WPA is an underrated stat. I totally can’t relate to the positions Tony Wolfe & Brendan Gawlowski take in the article, even though I normally like their articles a great deal.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

There's a philosophical element to it. Kinda similar to the FIP vs. defense-adjusted ERA argument

CeddyBReady

12:59

Let's stop giving Dan's ass so much credit. We all know the snark comes from the block-chain leftovers created by running thousands of simulations.

Appa Yip Yip

12:59

Biggio first? You know he can't catch up to heat, right? Pitchers who hit 95 could just blow three fastballs by him and rack up an easy out.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

19 of his 24 career homers are against fastballs

1:00

I think he'll be fine

(low BA)

szakyl

1:01

Why aren't sac flies included in WAR? Obviously they have positive value to a team. There is some clutch involved with having somebody on third, but also skill as a fly-ball hitter will hit them more often.

Dan Szymborski

1:01

There's a weirdness about it in that it seems to solely be a residue of ability rather than a skill

1:02

As counter-intuitive as it may seem at first, hitters don't actually hit a higher percentage of deep flies in sac situations

Chili "No Beans" McCox

1:02

Better career, Gore or Pearson?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

I think Gore, but this is a beer/tacos question

1:02

Any chance of getting minor league equivalencies on the site?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Still working on it

The minor league reconfig is a monkey wrench

Kate

1:02

What do you think Cleveland does with Amed Rosario and Gimenez to start the year? Gimenez to the minors? Both on the MLB roster splitting time?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

I think both on roster

Kate

1:02

Is Jordan Montgomery as easy a breakout candidate as his fielding indepentent metrics make him appear?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

He's a good candidate and one of my upcoming gones!

ones

Kate

1:03

Does Tony Gonsolin ever get a dedicated rotation spot in LA? Or does he need to get traded for that to happen?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

Injuries happen! He'll likely get one eventually

Cambodian Creamsicle

1:03

What if you wrapped chili and fritos in a tortilla, and then placed it in a hot dog bun, and then put that in an oversized hard-shell. Would it be a frito burrito sub taco?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I'll say yes

JO D

1:03

Do you dabble in crypto currencies?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

1:04

As an investment, it's too volatile for me

and I don't mind because ethically, I think it's wasteful

mine

The Stranger

1:04

Is there any evidence that some hitters disproportionally feast on bad pitching and struggle against good pitching?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Not really. I've found little value to this info

CeddyBReady

1:04

Sounds like a carb load and a coronary. FRITO BURRITO SUB TACO! Brought to you by Michael Bay.

Dan Szymborski

1:04

If you then put it between two piece of bread it's a frito burrito sub taco sandwich

Cynthia

1:04

Can you explain how your projection percentiles work? The rate states are universally higher with higher percentiles, whereas I was thinking it would be possible for a higher percentile to be very lucky in 1 stat while being unlucky in another (e.g. 40th is .250/.330/.450 while 60th is .250/.340/.480)?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

That's absolutely true, but I'm trying to get an overall percentile *line* not the percentile for *each* stat

Essentially, I model the results and then it calculates the most likely "fit" of those results

1:06

Imagine a guy's 60th percentile projection is .280/.350/.500 in 600 PA. There are a *lot* of configurations to get to the same performance

CeddyBReady

1:06

THEN if you wrap in wontons and fry its an EGGROLL! Yeah, just a weird ass eggroll.

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I think now we're just doing the Taco Town commercial

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