JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

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Dan Szymborski

12:46

Ohtani

12:47

Is there a problem with media if the news of my exoneration is being buried compared to the initial headlines?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Yeah, but if it bleeds it leads

tnst3b

12:48

Sometimes I go back and read that thread on Tom's Hardware about power supplies being partisan.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Wait, what's that?

laughingstock

12:48

Juan Soto to the A's?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

poor Soto

Time Warp

12:48

If you're looking for guys to examine, I'd be curious to see Herb Score, Roy Oswalt after 2008, Gooden after 1988, and Tom Tresh after 1966

Idiotic Failson

12:48

"who here likes to do multivariate regression analysis?" - Dan, as 1st grade kids stare completely befuddled

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I did not mention regression analysis or nonparametric modeling!

Even I'm not dumb enough to do that

"Hey gang, who here likes cluster analysis?"

mile low

12:49

the pitch clock is wonderful, I hope everyone can stay calm and not overreact

John

12:49

I saw all the changes that Fangraphs made to WAR math. Does Bbref do something similar and if so how did they announce the changes when they happen ? Are you a fan of "ever-changing" WAR ?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I'm a fan of changing WAR

because our understanding of the game and things that happens is always improving

12:50

and WAR is framework to represent our best estimate

Rick E

12:50

Hey Dan, thanks for all of your work. I've got a question about a stat I've been trying to find that seems important, but that I never see anyone writing about. Does fangraphs track (and can people view somewhere) the ratio of a player's in-zone-swing-rate to out-of-zone-swing-rate? Or put differently, the percentage of times that a player (given that he swung at a pitch) was swinging at a pitch that was in the zone rather than out of it? It seems like a good way of quantifying a player's eye for the strike zone, but I don't know whether it's readily available anywhere

Dan Szymborski

12:50

No, but you can calculate it pretty quickly unless I'm misunderstanding the question

12:50

It's Julio Rodriguez (who has even more piercing eyes)

Ben

12:51

Is there any locked away Statcast/similar data that you’re itching to get your hands on or is everything you need public?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I want more bat speed data!

notbrandonzink

12:51

When simulating, how do you account for the value of an additional inning pitched by the starter?

Doing some quick Statcast searched, SP allow a .309 wOBA the first time through the order, and a .319 wOBA the second time (2021-present). RP allow a .309 wOBA across the board, so it seems like from a modeling standpoint an "ideal" manager would pull his starter after 9 batters faced. Since the rough rule of thumb is to pull them after two times through the order, there must be some ~.003 wOBA value for every additional inning pitched by a starter, but how would you actually measure/value that other than looking at how teams are managed in real life?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

On a team level, I don't go into those nitty gritties

I make a model of teh general team quality from the percentile projections

make a distro

12:52

and then sim on game level

Colton

12:52

Re: Most Handsome player in baseball, my wife is a very strong advocate for Bryant and Kiermaier to hold that title lol

Dan Szymborski

12:53

A very nice woman my age whose name I will not say has seemed very into Votto and Blackmon when I've dragged her to games

Kris Bryant's Piercing Eyes

12:53

Jordan Montgomery has fired Bott Scoras. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Well, he's certainly not happy about the results!

O's Fan

12:53

And is it wrong to miss Esskay franks?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

No, because one's history/memories plays a huge part in how we perceive food

TomBruno23

12:54

Does anyone win 82 in the NL Central in 2024?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Yeah, someone does more likely than not

Brian

12:54

Do I need to drop Hoerner? Pick up caballero or Julien or cronenworth?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I'm honestly always a little sour on Hoerner in fantasy simply because you're not really taking advantage of his defense

DEF

12:55

Dan, any eta on the Diamond Mind Projection disk?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

It was submitted right at opening day

the guy who makes it for DMB also does work for Red Sox and it depends on his workload

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