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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/11/16
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Tony
12:11
So we know that most things so far are just small sample size... Can you name a couple of things/changes you've seen from players that might make you bet the over/under on their protection?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:11
Writing about this for Wednesday
Sean P
12:12
Watching Brett Lawrie reminds me of a slightly better version of Gordon Beckham, is he going to develop into anything better than that? Or is his getting dealt by the A's this offseason an indicator that he isn't really any good?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:12
There were lots of reasons to be interested in Lawrie a few years ago, but he hasn't really ever taken that big step forward, so his ceiling is smaller than he used to be.
But he's more than slightly better than Gordon Beckham.
Tom
12:12
Does ESPN have exclusive rights to the makeup game from last night, whenever it is going to be played?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:12
I literally have no idea.
Kevin
12:12
What are your preferred stats to look at when evaluating pitcher performance?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:13
Depends on the context.
mtsw
12:13
Do you have any thoughts on how SaberSim is doing? You mentioned last season (I think) that you were working on your own version of single-game predictions. Any update?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:13
Still a work in progress. I don't release stuff until I'm very comfortable and have lots of test data.
There's a reason ZiPS didn't become public until 2004.
mtsw
12:13
Hey the Orioles are 5-0. How does it feel to have math disproved forever?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:13
Devastating!
But if something was going to destroy mathematics, I'm glad it's my favorite team doing it.
Brian
12:13
Seemed like there was a bit of concern about Bumgarner going into Saturday. Where do you stand on him the rest of the year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:14
April
Enzo Amore
12:14
Who's a better player OBP wise? Josh Reddick or Soler?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:14
I think Reddick
Josh
12:14
Eugenio Suarez obviously isn't this good, but how real is his start? The power looks legit and he's only got one strikeout.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:15
ZiPS was already projecting him to hit nearly 20 this year.
He's got a 50% HR/FB. That's not sustainable.
You couldn't sustain a 50% HR/FB rate in a home run derby with prime Barry Bonds
Guest
12:16
Which 2 start pitcher this week? Niese or Tropeano? Thanks!
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:16
Tropeano
Craig in Chicago
12:17
Joe Ross and Werth for Gallo: who says "No"?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:17
Rangers
Bill
12:17
Tyler White's projections look great - are you buying a .345 OBP?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:17
He was always going to have a good OBP
12:18
ZiPS was the more negative of ZiPS/Steamer and .345 isn't that big a stretch from the .336 projection
Gavin
12:19
Do you think that there's any inherent value in # of pitches/PA (on batters end)? Whenever someone has an extraordinarily long at bat it's called productive even if it results in an out. On the other hand, less pitches/PA might result in encouraging managers to leave their pitcher in for a third time through the order.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:19
There is, but it's tricky to put an exact value on
Chutley
12:19
Glasnow, Trea Turner, & Joc Pederson for Gerrit Cole & Yelich in a keeper league?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:19
I think that's fair - it depends which side better fits your needs.
Biff
12:19
(IF) Mazara sticks, will he be more valuable than Domingo Santana in redrafts? Or comparable?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:19
I've heard way worse projections.
Err comparisons
Bork
12:19
Are the Orioles just riding an easy schedule or are they actually really good?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:19
April
Jim
12:20
What kind of numbers do you see from Ozuna this year
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