JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/13/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/13/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:16

Because, let's be honest, he was basically having it in AAA

laughing

2

ZipZip

12:17

Public Service AnnouncementI just want to warn everybody that I’ve Rostered, Aaron Nola this year… So that obviously means he’ll go 10-12 with a 4.00 ERA, and once again will underperform his expected metrics in every way.

David

12:18

Do you use any programming languages for ZiPS or is it just Excel?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

There's some visual basic involved

With enough third-party add-ons, I've gotten Statistica out of the mix

Which streamlines it considerably

Ralph

12:18

Feeling good about the Gleyber "breakout" pick?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

After last season's debacle, I'm not feeling good about any breakout/bust pick until November

12:20

Is Nick Markakis a Hall of Famer?

Yes (3.7% | 3 votes)

Yes, but louder (25.6% | 21 votes)

Of course he is (4.9% | 4 votes)

This is the dumbest question I've ever seen, you can't have Cooperstown without Nick Markakis obviously (65.9% | 54 votes)

Total Votes: 82

Mets - Mauricio

12:21

Think Ronny Mauricio gets a shot this year? I am thinking he is destined for a deadline trade since he is still at SS in AAA. Afraid he ends up somewhere else and outperforms the others. (still PO'ed over Amos Otis).

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I suspect he ends up on naother team

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:21

What has been the least interesting development to you so far in the 2023 season?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Generally speaking, the OH NO IS TEAM THAT IS OBVIOUSLY GOOD DONE BECAUSE THEY'RE 5-7? crap

Alex

12:22

The Atlanta Braves have a good team but a highly shaky starting rotation. In the meantime, they kind of need to stream a bunch of 5th-6th starter types while they're waiting for a) Max Fried to get healthy and b) someone to emerge as a more or less reliable fifth option. Their farm system is rather famously bare at this point, beyond Quad-A guys like Elder, Shuster, and Dodd. How should a real, non-fantasy team handle this kind of back-end revolving door?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I don't think they're necessarily not doing it the ideal way, given the facts on the ground

Try to catch lightning in a bottle

but don't stand on the edge of a building trying to catch it

Jack

12:23

Scott Barlow has looked garbage this year - seems the Royals blew it by not trading him last deadline. SwStr is down, Ks and BBs headed in opposite directions... any sign of hope?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

He looked like garbage against the Rangers but I think it's too soon for a reliever to be THAT worried unless he's gone full Wohlers

But the Royals probably should have traded him after 2021

12:24

Decline in league offense and BABIP boost kinda hit the fact that he was worse in 2022 than 2021 by a good margin

Guest

12:24

what do you think about dean kremer's start to his season

crying

1

Dan Szymborski

12:24

ZiPS is gonna have some shame to do!

Colton

12:24

Have you ever seen a more rapid decline in production from a player than Bellinger or Baez?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Bellinger is WAY up there

I'm not counting guys that died or were injured of course

Didn't I do a Bellinger piece with steep dropoffs?

12:26

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-bellinger-tolls-for-the-2019-nl-mvp/

leland

12:26

have you ever used the Marmol Strategy and what do you think of Matt Brash/ Honeywell as SP sv+hld options

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I don't tend to go for the gimmicky strategies as it makes it less fun for me

And lukewarm

Billiam

12:26

Yordan and Dubon, Attorneys at Law

Alex

12:27

Even adjusting for early-season sample size, Orlando Arcia seems to have gone from "cromulent backup" to "cromulent starter." He's only 28 and was a super-hot prospect in his day. How much of the improvement seems legit?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I'm torn - he had a LOT of mediocrity

But considering ZiPS loved him as a prospect, I have to have SOME loyalty to my creation

Liz

12:28

His plate discipline has been exactly as advertised, but so far it seems like Yoshida is hitting all of his batted balls on the ground. Is that just a small sample size effect or something that is consistent with a NPB hitter adjusting to MLB?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I haven't actually studied GB/FB changes in that regard from NPB to MLB

12:29

Mainly because I don't have THAT data for NPB

Tampa Bay Slays

12:29

I know it's small sample size, but let's call a spade a spade. 12-0 is quite impressive no matter which way you slice it (even if the teams they beat are not impressive). This is fun to watch! Who knew boring workmanlike Tampa was going to pull this one out

Travis

12:29

Might be content for this elsewhere, but which of the Reds “big three” starters is ZIPS most bullish about long term?

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