JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/23/20

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

And we are LIVE from pandemic house arrest!

Takeshi Kovacs

12:03

C.J. Abrams is obviously a long way off. But how impressed is ZIPS by his first showing in pro ball?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Very much show, for a projection system to put him 30th in the prospect ranking based on rookie ball, is impressive.

Big Joey

12:05

In your opinion, what does Wander Franco's ceiling look like? .330 35 20? I know he's not a power hitter now, but I imagine he will grow into it. I've heard discussions about him turning into something like prime Robinson Cano but with with more speed and potentially slightly better contact skills

Dan Szymborski

12:06

A bit aggressive with BA -- nobody's real ability ever spikes that high today -- but ZiPS (and I and all the scouts) think that'll come

He had like 40 XBH total as an 18 year old and playing above rookie ball

A lot of those will become home runs.

Sam

12:06

If I offered you a magic button where pushing it meant MLB would start by mid June, but you had to permanently and publically endorse beans in chili and could only eat chili with beans, would you push it?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

If you gave me this guarantee, I'd live on broccoli-coca cola smoothies through mid-June.

Everybody's got a price.

Wichita Cow Pies

12:07

Why not take the Arizona plan and employ one MilB team per franchise ... a 32-man roster made up of players the team designates from their system? Seems a lot easier than fussing with the MLB Player Union.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

They pretty much have to fuss with the MLBPA (and a lot of prospects are on 40-man rosters too)

Numpty

12:08

In all seriousness, how are you doing, Dan?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

My cough is improved from last week!

Big Joey

12:08

Do you think the Twins recognize the greatness that is Tyler Duffey? Taylor Rogers is the closer but Duffey should be setting up for him 100% of the time. Does Romo/Clippard/whoever get more chances purely on name recognition, or do the Twins realize how nasty Duffey was in the 2nd half?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I don't know precisely what they know, but I suspect they do.

Look at the game logs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tyler-duffey/13758/game-log?type=5&p...

12:11

Let's divide the season into thirds and use our shift click tool

12:12

His entering game LIs went 0.57, 1.05, to 1.21

Guest

12:12

Do you think that MLB let the Red Sox determine what penalty was appropriate and then cut it in half?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

heh

12:13

Yeah, it's weirdly unsatisfying to see players getting immunity to throw the book at the freaking video operator.

Like that dude had power to get the players to look at the in-game video.

And the rumbling that the players were unclear if that was cheating

12:14

If MLB's done such a crap job communicating what's legal and what's not, why would you penalize the video guy at all?

Big Joey

12:14

If there isn't a 2020 season, would guys like JT Realmuto benefit from taking a year off and resting their knees, legs, ect.?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'm honestly not sure since we've never had a league take a year off!

Numpty

12:14

Accounting for the shorter season in future projections: actual methodological challenge or just pain in the neck?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

A combination.

100 game mini-season, it's just a pain in the neck.

12:15

For 1982 and 1995 projections, filling in 1981 projections and 1994 projections for missing games turns out to be the best apparoch (doing a piece on this)

Big Joey

12:15

If there isn't a 2020 season, are some players going to fall completely off the map, or will everyone return to basically the same skillset they had pre-virus? Like Will Gary Sanchez eat so much pizza and becomes so slow and un-athletic by 2021, that he no longer can play?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

It's going to vary considerably.

Blue Morpho

12:15

If we were under normal circumstances do you think the Red Sox punishment would be the same?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Probably. I think Milton Berle had a show when they started this investigation.

greg

12:15

Cat update please.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Last I checked, Cassiopeia and Mercutio are asleep on different beds, Constantine was watching birds from the kitchen window (there's a cardinal who hangs around my house who he wants to eat) and Justinian is asleep on my office couch.

Matt

12:17

I'm curious where your militant stance on the definition of chili came from. I'd lived 35+ years before I ever came across this take from anyone. Prior to this, I don't think the definition of chil had ever been debated by anyone I've ever encountered. Meat, no meat, beans, no beans, it was always chili until now!

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