JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/8/21

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Adam

12:18

Cesar Valdez? That's it, that's the question.

BringBackDeSpanielHair

12:18

Also, a moment of silence for Paxton and Tatis's arms

Kate

12:18

Thoughts on India so far? Seems to be holding his own.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

So far, so good! But, you know, April.

BringBackDeSpanielHair

12:19

What's the 80th percentile season for Gavin Lux with full time PT? Trying to find some of this stuff is difficult!

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Hang on, I can do that!

12:21

Not in-season

but we'r estill close enough to start of season

12:22

His 80th percentile projection was .266/.333/.517, 125 OPS+, 4.2 WAR

DiscoElysium

12:22

Dan, where are my keys?

Bubba

12:23

Why are knuckleballs generally a last resort for pitchers who failed traditionally? What would happen if deGrom spent an offseason working on a knuckleball? I find them quirky and fascinating and want more in MLB.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

You have to change up your style so much

CJ Abrams

12:23

Hi Dan, with the injury to Tatis jr, when do you think I'll make my major league debut this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I don't see him making an appearance until the minor league season is over and rosters are expanded

if at all

Ben

12:26

In 2004, Barry Bonds had more home runs that strikeouts. It was the 45th time that happened, but who know if that will ever happen again. Since Pujols in 2015, no qualified batter has even had half as many home runs than strikeouts. Who is the best candidate to at least reach the 50% mark next?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I think Soto possibly

50% mark of course

brad penny for your thoughts

12:26

isn't it crazy how close corbin burnes is to corbin bernsen? makes you think.

Fun Words

12:26

Heteroskedasticity vs Perfunctory

MilwaukeeBeerJays

12:27

Steven Matz is already 1/4 on the way to fulfilling his zips projections. So does zips think his arm will fall off after 3 more starts?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

IMA GONNA SMACK YOU

OddBall Herrer

12:28

Took a look at Jazz Chisholm's peripheral numbers, expecting to see a total mess based upon scouting reports, but since he's been up last season his contact, SwStr and statcast numbers area actually not half bad. Is this guy better than the 'lottery ticket' he's being billed as?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I think he's better than a lottery ticket. Any dude who has good power and can play shortstop is going to be interesting

He is still a bit raw right now

Louie

12:29

Dan, you mentioned a couple chats ago that the Reds FO was downgraded in your view this offseason. As a concerned Reds fan, is this ownership related, or Dick William's departure related. Or something else?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Ownership spending commitment. Once they shifted to win now mode, the time for half-measures is over

John

12:31

Any way for you to build a deader ball into ZIPS? If the 10-15 ft decrease in flyball distance holds, it seems like it could have huge and disproportionate impact on certain players.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I can build league levels of offense

but I don't have any model to put in X decrease in flyballs or something

Guest

12:32

how does zips handle pitcher projections if they might be a starter versus a reliever? Would pitch mix, minor league IP/start, or other things make certain pitchers projected better as a reliever than if they were a starter on an innings basis?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I have a generalized model for moving players to and from the roles

I'm researching a more sophisticated model that uses statcast data. Problem is, that length of time is fairly small

and you have a limited set of moves to look at

Guest

12:32

Any chance MLB will further incentivize vaccinations by allowing pitchers to utilize the spitball once immunologically reinforced?