JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/11/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:18

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/21387975/just-how-good-sho...

B Snit’s Bongos

12:18

Will a RH batter ever hit a home run into McCovey Cove?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

It's *possible* but unlikely

12:19

Going to the start of 2017, Statcast only lists 36 opposite-field homers at San Francisco for righties

and none of them were even 400 feet

12:21

Cron had the third longest (the longest was a Baez inside-the-parker and Rupp's was more towards center)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e40e318f-f78d-4353...

And it didn't even come close

12:22

There was a THT piece some years ago that talked about hte problems.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-physics-of-splash-hits/

12:23

As of the piece, the average HR distance of a splash is 405

but it's 366 down the line exactly

12:24

a righty crushing something opposite field in exactly the right way COULD do it

but it's an unlikely event

Krusty

12:24

Two questions, highly interrelated:

When should I start to worry about Max Scherzer?
When should I start to worry about the Mets?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Now, a couple weeks ago

Guest

12:24

I love your recent Twitter critiques of the Cardinals front office (I am a Cardinals fan).This isn't a question, I just want to say it's cathartic to know I am not the only one feeling this way.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I've generally liked the team's front office, but this is a mess right now.

Air Yordan

12:25

At what age does Michael Harris move out of CF? I’m expecting him to keep gaining a bit of weight and add more power. Is it after the current extension he’s on?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think he'll last his 20s

Another Cards Question

12:26

Paul DeJong is off to a strong start to his season, and the Cardinals have held on to him despite poor hitting last year. Still, there's no way he has his club option exercised in 2024, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I can't imagine they do

they turned down a 12.5 million option on Wong a few years ago

12:27

I can't imagine them liking DeJong, even having a good year, enough to take a similar option

romorr

12:29

A lot of chatter about Mountcastle and his "bad luck". It happened last year, and it's leaking into this year as well. He's also been unlucky on the road, so we can't put all the blame on the wall. What do you make of it? I'm still of the opinion that things will get better, but there is that nagging feeling that won't go away.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

It's a bit overblown

Naturally, he's no longer ideally suited to Camden

but homers can't explain a 50 point home drop in BA

12:30

some of it yes

but he's also played worse overall at home

outside of homers

12:31

and remember, actual home/road splits for an individual are EXTREMELY noisy, even though they reflect a real thing

which is why I always warn people that Coors Away stats are an awful projection system

12:32

Can you say something nice about Nick Castellanos please

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Castellanos only struggled last year because of his compassion. Given that deaths and bigotry are revealed during his home runs, he didn't want to inflict undue suffering on humanity.

Now that it's been a while since, he's free to carefully hit homers again.

12:34

By my reckoning, Castellanos hit HRs during Thomfoolery, two eulogies for deceased veterans, the announcement of an ill coach, and Pete Walker's DUI apology

B Snit’s Bongos

12:34

Could a McDonald’s self-checkout kiosk call balls and strikes with greater accuracy than an MLB Umpire could take down lunchtime rush orders?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Yes

The Amagin’ Mets

12:35

Thoughts on Pfaadts’ contact quality allowed to date?

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