JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/12/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

Good afternoon!

12:03

Jeff

12:03

What do we make of Semien? Same slow start as last year, or something else?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

I'm still on slow start.

Ryan

12:03

What language do you primarily code in? Does the answer depend on the project? I.e the ZIPS model vs. a random Thursday article research

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Depends. I'm not a coder, I'm a math guy who codes a little when he's stuck doing. I use a combination of Excel with some statistical package third party add-ons and Visual Basic

John

12:04

What is the most unpleasant thing about your job?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Every five years when a CBA ends, there's a chance that you'll suddenly be employed writing about something that doesn't currently exist.

12:05

Dom Smith has a career 102 wRC+ and 0 war in 1300 career at bats time for the Mets to move on? JD should be getting his at bats n?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I'm nearing that point, though he does has use as a role player

jfast

12:06

What are your reactions to Jeremy Pena's start to his career? On pace for a 8.0 WAR season... Is he your pick for ROY?

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I thought he'd be decent, but not THIS good

If the season ended today and I voted in the AL, he'd be my ROY in the AL

12:07

Then some combo of Kwan and Ryan and J-Rod

I'm in the Cincinnati chapter so I'm almost certainly going to only vote on NL awards

12:08

Now, they can sometimes take people from other chapters if they don't have enough people who want to vote in one

But I would turn down that opportunity because there are way too many people who don't get to vote much or ever and I get to vote most years.

For example, Jay has *never* gotten to vote, which is bullshit.

Him and Emma should move to Cincinnati!

Bo Callahan

12:08

Will Adley Rutschman struggle when he comes up?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I don't think he will

Jed

12:08

Does ZiPS take strength of schedule into account? The most extreme example I can think of is Gleyber Torres in 2019 just raked against the Orioles - 279 wRC+. Maybe another way to think about it - would ZiPS expect a player to be better in say the NLC than the ALE just due to the unbalanced schedule based on the relative strength of the divisions?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Yes, though very generally.

It would be very PC intensive if I had to update everything every move teams made

BlueJayMatt

12:09

Can you just hold me and tell me that the Blue Jays will soon start hitting with RISP, please?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Hitting itself is the skill

Liam

12:09

Is there a certain type of player that zips tends to over/under value?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Sadly, no.

This type of calibration is the easiest issue to wring out

12:10

Unfortunately, player and team errors are not predictive of future errors for the same player and team. Or any characteristics that I have found

Now, the ERROR range is larger for very young and very old players

But as you probably note, that's BIAS not ACCURACY

Justin

12:10

Any idea on when Zips 2023 and 2024 projections could be updated? Any change Steamer, or any other stat projections, could publish forecasted stats as well?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I don't update 2023/2024 in-season

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:11

Dan, is the Tiger's season completely toast in mid May? Is there any hope for any meaningful baseball in 2022 for them? If not, what's the best approach with this current group to regroup for 2023?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Meaningful in playoffs? Probably not. But meaningful in getting better, there's still a lot they can do.

Take as much a future-centered approach as possible. If your choice is seeing what a 2023 option can do and what a 2022 option can do, take the former.

Kempin' ain't easy

12:11

Do you think the A's will hold onto any of Montas, Murphy, and Laureano at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I don't think they'll be quick to move the last two. Montas has to be gone at the deadline though

mr honk

12:12

whats for lunch

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