JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/13/2019

Dan Szymborski

12:06

OK, I'm here!

I'd like to say something out of my control happened, but I tend to start Twitter rants two minutes before I have to be somewhere

Matt

12:07

The chat post is messed up - showing the HTML code

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Should be fixed now.

Voldemort

12:08

Do you have confidence in Jesus Aguilar to turn things around this season? He's looked sharper the last week or so.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

He's certainly looked better. There's still hope.

Voldemort

12:08

Aaron Hicks is supposedly being activated today. What's your outlook on him for the rest of season?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't see a fundamental reason that he shouldn't be playing at least somewhere near where he should be

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:09

So...Glasnow out 4-6 weeks with a forearm strain, Honeywell still isn't pitching, Michaels Zunino and Perez are both on the IL. The catching situation is perhaps OK since they got gifted D'Arnaud, but what's the best plan for the pitching side of things?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I think they're going to kinda try to muddle through - they're not going to make a large acquisition

12:11

And just to head this one off at the pass: for the person or persons asking me questions about the "United States Coup" in Venezuela, let's just say that you would not like *my* opinion and you can save your time by not asking.

connor

12:12

What is your ETA for Riley, Urias and Monte Harrison to the Big Leagaues?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I think Riley comes up fairly soon.

He's already gotten his first playing time at first and left professionally in the opening weeks of the season

12:13

I think the Braves are clearly looking at geting him into the lineup sooner rather than later

Kyler

12:13

Hey Dan I don't mean to alarm you but Nick Markakis is at it again. What do you make of his late career offensive resurgence?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Dunno, maybe April showers bring Markakis flowers

I know it's a crappy response, but I don't *know* why Markakis suddenly rocked it early last year, then was sub-replacement, and now is hitting yet again

LFC Mike

12:13

I would have bet everything that Dan would willingly eat a second bowl of SkyLine Chili before Mike Fiers threw his second no hitter...

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Hey, Tim Lincecum has two no-hitters, both AFTER he was a good pitcher

Voldemort

12:14

Is Christian Yelich stealing signs at Miller Park? He's putting up some crazy home/away splits.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

You have a park that's very lefty friendly and small sample sizes. I wouldn't ready anything into it.

Robert Muldoon

12:14

How much do you use xwOBA? Or how much do you react if a hitter you own has a far greater xwOBA than wOBA?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I don't use it in projections as I have my own thing.

But I do quote it as an alternate source

Hazmat

12:15

Is the Lucas Giolito breakout real? Projections don't seem to be buying it, but FIP, pitch data, and noticeable mechanical changes say it looks legit.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

YOu'd actually have seen the projection move more if this were the ZiPS year-to-year model rather than the simplified in-year version

The bump in k rate and the decent bump in velcoity make me very optimistic about giolito

12:17

The changeup has looked nastypants

I'll find a particularly good one while chatting

12:17

Do you know who the second best catcher by fWAR this season is (min 90 PA)? It's the White Sox' backup catcher, James McCann with 1.4 fWAR! Do you think there's anything real to his breakout this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I'm not on that train yet

snowman

12:18

How bad are the Blue Jays? Percentage chance they lose 100 games?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I don't think they're 100 games bad but they certainly haven't looked great lately

Last I checked, ZiPS had them at a .445 roster strength a few days ago

I can't run that on the fly

retirehurdle

12:18

Know you've been to Bucsdugout before. You see where Vox followed a complaint there by a female poster by hiring a disgraced former priest who advocated men spanking their wives and now they've fired all their longtime writers and installed a yankee fan as site manager? So weird.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I did not see this

12:19

That seems...less than ideal?

Starfox

12:22

No spoilers. I just gotta say...I've never seen a tv series collapse so completely into a heaping pile of rubbish quite like GoT.

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