JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/14/20

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Dan Szymborski

1:01

rather than a normal one

Bologna Tugboat

1:01

I mean, yeah. Coaches are grossly overpaid just like every other professional athlete, considering what they do. I truly believe universities are the ones getting off the hook here. Between their endowments and exceedingly inflated tuition rates, most universities (especially private) are collectively ripping off American families an an annual basis. Like, Ivy league schools are receiving bailouts right now...what???

Dan Szymborski

1:01

The issue is fairly complex -- a high percentage of endowments are targeted to specific things -- and I'm not educated enough in the data to have a strong opinion

Guest

1:01

Whoops, missed the chat again!

Dan Szymborski

1:02

THERE STILL SOME CHAT TO SQUEEZE OUT OF OUR CHAT SPEAKING MOUTHS

Woody

1:02

Is the proposed taxi squad is just a substitute for the AAA team since the minors won't be playing this year? Do you think they will get more MLB time than ordinary AAA players? Does that make guys like Jo Adell worth drafting?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

I think largely so.

And possibly.

I think teams that are out of it will go to minor leaguers much faster than usual assuming this is how the taxi squad goes

MLB hasn't specifically said there's no minor league season but realistically...there's no minor league season

1:03

I think you would need COVID-19 to just POOF disappear and I dont' think it's going to do that.

There's a financial motivation to have an MLB season there isn't for milb, sadly.

Questionless amusement

1:03

I’m sure you’ve answered this a million times, but how do you handle managerial competence in ZIPS team projections. For instance, the managers that play their veterans rather than younger players, resulting in de-optimization or de-randomization? Maybe fewer of those managers, but does it ever show up in a retrospective look at results (recognizing health is a much larger factor).

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I try to guess what the team is going to do in their depth charts.

Not much of an effort otherwise

gifman

1:03

Say in 20 years you're thinking of retiring- would you ever put ZiPS in the public domain? Just put the file on github or whatever and let people make changes that you oversee? How much is your job stability tied to ZiPS vs. your ability to interpret it? I think it could be super cool to put a ZiPSlite on github and see how people alter it, letting FG host it on player pages, etc

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I haven't really considered what to do eventually.

1:04

And I'm also not sure about my job stability in that sense becuase I don't hire me.

In other words, I'm not sure WHY people keep giving me money for certain.

Alex

1:04

Great advertising idea for fangraphs after seeing your espn article yesterday: Like European soccer teams, they should loan out some of the writing talent to other contributors and let you advertise that you’re from fangraphs (the authors keep the money, not fangraphs). Don’t know if this would work and the other sites probably wouldn’t go for it, but I thought it was an interesting way to possibly bring in more site traffic. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Dunno, this is more Dave's department than mine.

1:05

I am gleefully happy to be paid to NOT have to worry about those things.

gifman

1:05

Eric (and Kiley) seemed to have a bias towards specific spin/release angle patterns for pitcher projection (high spin, vertical slot, etc). Have you looked into how much those factors add to a projection system?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Still very early in this data

Zack

1:05

Presuming that 2021 is a "normal" style season, how much of your day is spent debating how much to factor whatever 2020 is into the projections? I assume it depends so much on what (if any?) we get...in the worst-case scenario where we get no baseball (SORRY), do you just age everyone a year and re-run 2020?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Weirdly, 1994 and 1981 didn't make projections worse.

Which I'm still figuring out because it's the opposite of what I expect.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

1:05

Quick, don't think, first name: Most underrated player in baseball is _______

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Bobby

Isolated Thinker

1:06

Did you ever heavily invest in a player's rookie card? I have about 20 Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens cards if anyone is interested.

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I didn't. I just liked opening packs.

Questionless amusement

1:06

Similar to Arizona question, getting Howie extra at bats has to help Nats.

Dan Szymborski

1:06

Nats are hurt on the other side by weaker high minors depth

pepper

1:06

For example, does anyone think the minor leaguers are being paid appropriately? Let's say we agree that these folks are underpaid. I suppose someone could hold an opinion that we should boycott, protest and hold a crusade to change the world to how we think the world should be. OR....we could say that the decision to enter the minor leagues is a personal choice to willingly accept less pay in hopes of a larger pay-off down the road. I see no reason to deprive myself of a personal pleasure, which a boycott would do, in order to rectify a wrong that the minor leaguers willingly accepted. but I'm sure mine is just a less valid opinion....lol.

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I think I disagree with you, but I don't think it's a Chass-level thing!

I don't feel right, in most cases, imposing my values on other free parties.

John and Jeff

1:07

Nancy Meyers: can she make a bad movie?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I didn't particularly care for I love trouble

gifman

1:07

If you were a team with a strength in one area (say swing changers, you're good at getting high EV GB guys to get to LDs like LAD), would you draft players that you think you can optimize, or draft players you're bad at developing and pick players you can optimize off the scrap heap?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I don't think I'd have an overlapping philosophy of this type

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