Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/16
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OddBall Herrera
12:18
Hypothetically, if you could get several pitchers to learn and consistently repeat the exact same mechanics as each other, to what degree would their pitches end up looking very similar? If the answer is 'very similar', and if non-optimal mechanics are a major driver of injuries, then aren't injuries in a way the cost we are paying for having a pretty cool diversity of pitch types and styles in MLB?
Dan Szymborski
12:19
Well, if everything is identical so far, including their various arm speeds, then physics demands that they be quite similar.
Injuries are the cost we pay for having baseball.
Hall of Fame pitchers are the good pitchers that simply survive the Hunger Games pitching meat grinder.
Kevin
12:20
Who's crazy breakout are you buying more, Jackie Bradley or Travis Shaw? And what would you say the odds are that at least 1 of the 2 can keep up this well above average offensive production (+125 wRC+) for the remainder of the season?
Dan Szymborski
12:20
Bradley
hector santiago
12:22
How do I continuously manage to outpitch my FIP? Should I expect years of regression to happen at once?
Dan Szymborski
12:22
Hard to say, but even over the number of IP, that much overperformance has some predictive value
12:23
When he's good though, his change is usually on.
Ken M
12:23
Clayton Kershaw made a mistake in signing that contract, right?
Dan Szymborski
12:24
I wouldn't say so. That he *didn't* get injured over that time frame doesn't mean that it was stupid to factor in the risk t hat he *would* get injured
12:25
I've never been at-fault for a car accident, but that doesn't mean that I made a mistake buying car insurance over that period.
(apart from the legal issue of not having insurance)
Curious George
12:25
Is there an article written on the perils of setting your lineup with only side of plate for handed batters against a pitcher. IE lefty pitcher facing a only righted batters 1-9.
Dan Szymborski
12:25
I don't think you have enough control/experiment for that kind of thing to be that meaningful
12:26
Differences in palyer quality will tend to dwarf that of handedness.
Tom
12:26
Do three NL East teams make the playoffs this year?
Dan Szymborski
12:26
No
Joe
12:26
What, if anything, did people get wrong in their predictions about the Orioles?
Dan Szymborski
12:26
Who was making April-only predictions?
Danny Almonte
12:26
Did Odor just trump Nolan Ryan and Kyle Farnsworth?
Dan Szymborski
12:27
Ryan's was more iconic
Will graham
12:27
Do protection systems lag too much in accounting for steep changes? I'm thinking Odubel Herrera's uptick in walks and Hector Neris' K rate?
Dan Szymborski
12:27
Depends. There are a lot of steep changes that don't maintain.
Josh
12:27
Have you noticed anything in particular that has led to Iwakuma's poor start? His FB velocity is down a tick; is that having a significant impact?
Dan Szymborski
12:28
I can only remember seeing Iwakuma starting once this year, so I'd have to go back and watch to have a non-statistical ansewr
baby bull
12:28
Lindor went ice cold, are they pitching him differently or did he just have to come back down to normal
Dan Szymborski
12:28
I think this is a case of not seeing the forest for the trees.
Trevor
12:29
Thoughts on the AL West? Are the Mariners now the favorite considering the start to the season? I like their rotation a lot, lineup has some good depth around the core. The pen has shown some cracks with Peralta as the 8th inning guy, however (Benoit due back this week though). Is the pen the most likely trade addition the M's would make?
Dan Szymborski
12:29
Given the likely small spread of ability from best to worst AL teams, actually having the lead is a significant advantage
Since there's unlikely to be someone trailing you that's *much* better than you.
Mariners are in a good, not great position.
baby bull
12:30
corey seager starting to get hot, what is his ROS projection since he didnt get off to great start
Dan Szymborski
12:30
Shouldn't be much change given that he's just about at his projections for the season.
rustydude
12:30
Back when you were answering questions with "April", a commenter in another FG chat was analyzing Ian Desmond after 2 weeks when he was hitting something like .100/.100/.150. The commenter commented that he watched Desmond watch a meat pitch that was right in the middle of the plate for called strike 3 and concluded that Desmond was cooked. The chat host sort of agreed that he looked a little lost at the plate. One pitch is the ultimate small sample size, so the analysis sort of speaks for itself. My question is, considering how difficult it is to hit major league pitching, what would you guess is the % of MLB hitters who experience a called strike 3 meat pitch each season?
Dan Szymborski
12:30
100%
Joey Votto's already had a few
baby bull
12:30
Who should I start in a weekly league Tulo or Villar? or platoon?
Dan Szymborski
12:31
Go with your studs
Hungry
12:31
How long does it typically take for Zips to change it’s projection of a player? For example, lets say Addison Russell made an adjustment and is now a true talent 115 wrc+ hitter, how long would it take Zips to change it’s ROS projection?
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