JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/24

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Dan Szymborski

1:09

And I'll give a letter of recommendation only based on work that I read

1:10

I don't need people to do my work for me

and anyone who does the stuff I do should work for their benefit, not mine

I'm just a dumbass baseball writer with a useful secondary skillset

Stu

1:11

Did you make more than the 3 prediction cereals? They were so funny.

Dan Szymborski

1:11

I ended up making like 20!

This is still the best one

Louie's Arise

1:11

Is it too early to crown Javier Assad our new King of FIP Defiance?

Dan Szymborski

1:12

Yes

though it is likely he has at least SOMEWHAT of an ability

But with his BF, you still expect to see about 80% regression toward defense-adjusted FIP

Stantonian blast

1:12

What’s your short list for guys who should already be in? (Mine is Kevin Brown)

Dan Szymborski

1:12

Brown's on there

Grich, Whitaker

1:13

He acts like a complete douchenozzle at every opportunity, but Schilling

John B

1:13

Baseball trade values is now subscription. You really need to add something like this to zips/fangraphs. It's an awesome tool

Dan Szymborski

1:13

I've conisdered pitching the idea

But I'm not sure how much of it ends up becoming a full-time job

jack

1:14

Does Coby Mayo represent an upgrade at any position for the Os right now in which he can realistically play

Dan Szymborski

1:14

Weirdly, probably not

and that's mostly because Os'

Judee

1:14

For what it's worth, i just read a study that said intermittent fasting leads to much higher heart death than other forms of eating control...stay well

Dan Szymborski

1:16

True, but that was also survey data and didn't really examine cause-and-effect

and there are confounding variables

Such as people more willing to go to intermittent feasting are likely the ones with the most pressing need to lose weight

which would also tend to correlate with cardio events

1:17

While my blood pressure and cholesterol are fine, my doctor was fine with it since it's effective

Judee

1:17

"I don't need people to do my work for me"

While we're on the topic, if you're not paying for FG, you should be. That is all

Yosef Gewurtz

1:17

which AI Photo generator do you use?

Dan Szymborski

1:18

Midjourney for some things, Bing for others. Stability Diffusion when I'm feeling like not being lazy

Pirate

1:18

As a projection system guru, what do you make of the incredibly bullish Steamer projection Paul Skenes has? 2.88 FIP! Curious more of what you think Steamer is doing here

Dan Szymborski

1:18

it FEELS aggressive, but I don't know the extend of data Jared's using

ZiPS uses college data when it HAS to

Guest

1:19

Hi Dan — I think you might have been tossed this question already but my friend and I are trying to come up with a way to graph playoff probabilities throughout the year for seasons pre-2016. For this example we are currently looking to graph the close ‘03 and ‘04 playoff races between the Yankees and Red Sox and how each teams probabilities swung throughout the year similar to how Fangraphs does this currently. Do you have any thoughts on how we might be able to accomplish this?? Would be super helpful. Thanks so much.

Dan Szymborski

1:19

oh lord

you'd rpobably have to design a small sim

with a dynamically changing rough estimate of team quality

General Musings

1:19

Have you ever been to the Dan River in North Carolina?

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