JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/18/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/18/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

ITS A CHAT!

Ben Cherington

12:03

Does Henry Davis even need Triple A? At what point does he just head to Pittsburgh.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

It's a bit tricky - I don't generally like skipping catchers too aggressively, but they can't play both him and Endy Rodriguez.

12:05

And it's a little awkward to stick him in a non-catcher position in the majors

Unless the Pirates have the guts to bench Santana

Thank you Dan,

12:05

very cool!

Dan Szymborski

12:05

DAMN YOU CAVE

Travis

12:05

Is it officially safe to say Acuna’s back

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Yeah

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:06

Can we get a moment of silence for the loss of the great Bill Saluga? https://deadline.com/2023/05/bill-saluga-dies-you-can-call-me-ray-come...

McGraw45

12:07

I have been a Padres fan all my life. Convince me going to the NLCS wasn't a cruel joke to give us hope, only to rip it away once more.

Nick Pratto

12:08

What is my long term outlook?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I think an averageish 1B

Guest

12:08

Gonna start of wacky:

Things aren't going great in San Diego

If things continue to go really poorly and they find themselves like 40-50 in mid-July, 15+ games out of the West and 8+ out of the wildcard (assuming two the Mets/Phillies/Cardinals/Cubs improve), what are the chances the Padres would entertain making Juan Soto available for the second straight deadline?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

I don't think they do that unless they suddenly desire to break up the team. Losing Soto makes some of the other deals nearly pointless

They're pot committed now

Beacon

12:10

Should the White Sox move Kopech to the bullpen?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I would consider it if the White Sox were seriously in the divisional race

But they're not and their good outcomes probably need Kopech a good starter and one fewer starter to need to replace in the next couple of years

Since the season's increasingly looking lost, I think they shoudl work out his issues.

Who's Fabio

12:10

Hey Dan, the eye test indicates that Vladdy has embraced physical fitness and he looks good at first. With Chapman likely gone after the season, could/should the Jays try Vlad Jr. at third again?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I generally think teams such try to push the defensive spectrum where possible. I'd want a fallback position though in the spring

Dan

12:11

How long until it's more likely Bryce Elder is truly better than sum of his pitches vs this is just a blip of over-performance?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Not really a one sentence answer! It takes a lot of time, however, for outperformance of peripheral numbers to have predictive value

12:13

For example, Marco Gonzales advanced far enough in ZiPS that it believe his ability to outperform his FIP is about 0.3 runs

Matt

12:13

You projected what Bryan Reynolds contract extension might look like, with the Bucs getting him to sign and showing a willingness to extend some of the core, what does ZIPS have to say about a potential Mitch Keller extension?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Dangit you guys always give me work to do! lol

12:14

You'll have to wait a few, ZiPS isn't open

Insert Witty Name Here

12:14

You’re late. I want a refund.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I don't usually leave at precisely 1 though!

Anon21

12:14

Is Orlando Arcia a good hitter now? Did the Braves get a huge steal by signing him to that 3-year, $7.3 million extension?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I got most of my feelings about Arcia out in the piece I wrote a few weeks ago

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vaughn-grissom-gets-a-cameo-as-orlando-arc...

Colton

12:15

Does ZiPS have biases for certain traits in prospects? I know you've talked about how it was so much higher on Mookie as a prospect compared to the industry, is there something in particular it keys on that you've noticed or just happened to work out that way?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I'm not sure for certain traits other than since it's performance-based, it likes players with good performance who scouts don't like for some reason

LFC Mike

12:15

Greetings Dan. What did you make of Anthony DeSclafani hurting his foot with a piano bench? Have you suffered anything like that? I understand when asked how long he may be out, DeSclafani said "He would be Bach in no time". Thank You. Let the derision begin.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I badly sprained a ligament in my wrist some years ago playing the first movement of the Beethoven Pathetique

12:18

And then I tore it more significantly a few years later when I tripped on a cat and tried to catch myself on the bannister falling

12:19

Injury was here

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