JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/2019

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Dan Szymborski

12:50

a lot of what the Rays are doing is driven by the personnel they have.

12:51

If they had five healthy awesome starters, I think we'd see them in a more typical role

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:51

Tim Tebow slashing .157/.216/.231 for a wRC+. Is this the end of the road for our hero?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Tebow draws because he's Tebow, not because he's good

Magic Kingdome

12:51

Worse MLB promotional tie-in: Spiderman 2 or Game of Thrones?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Spider bases

Magic Kingdome

12:51

Is zebra chili a white chili?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

No, I think zebras are red meat

CinnReds

12:52

Jess Winker=toast? Or is there a turnaround coming?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

He'll turn it around

Matt

12:52

Yanks are on the same HR pace as they were at this point last year, and are like 25% behind the two leaders. Will that normalize, or is a team going to blow the Yanks HR record out of the water?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I think it'll normalize, but they have a lot to make up

SO I don't think they'll lead in homers

French Lick Preparation H Donkey

12:52

Worst minor league team name ever......game over

Cookie Monster

12:52

ZiPs is strangely high on Tapia despite a career high k rate, chase rate and lowest contact rate. Why?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Stuff like chase rate you don't see in the in-season model, which is designed to be simpler

Chase

12:53

Would it make sense for the Angels to acquire some cost-controlled SP? Not a great enough team to trade for rentals, but the bullpen and lineup are pretty good. Just the SP that needs some significant help.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I think it would. There's some uncertainty past this year and the Astros aren't at the end of their success road yet

Hammer

12:53

How much stock do you put in Yordan Alvarez's numbers? .411/.484/.883 with 18 hr in 39 games makes my numbers in most video games look bad

Dan Szymborski

12:53

THe thing is, the more video game a number is, the more likely it's real.

12:54

I don't know if there's a name for it, but there's this weird paradox in which people think an .800 OPS hitter hitting .850 is more likely a real mimprovement than an .800 OPS hitter hitting 1.100. The opposite is true!

12:55

Pressly for sure.

He's better than Harris.

12:56

And I'm really uncomfortable with suggesting that domestic abuse is baseball's newest inefficiency.

Voldemort

12:56

People talk about Yordan Alvarez like he's the second coming of the Dark Lord

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Evil will always triumph because good is dumb.

12:56

Astudillo makes TOO much contact, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Don't bring those heresies here!

Morbo

12:57

What do you use to program zips? R, python, excel, java script, an assembly language?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

These days, Excel with some specialized plugins and some visual basic. Statistica used to be a part of it -- it's what we used in college! -- but I've gotten that out of the works.

out of the mix

I've always been hampered somewhat by not having a programming background.

Turtles

12:57

Are your chats always this bizarre? I quite like it.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

This is actually unusually normal for my chats.

Matt

12:58

Dan, admit it - ZiPS is actually just a hamster on a wheel randomly selecting projection outputs.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I used to tell the ZiPS origin story as me pulling paper numbers from a hat that is a family heirloom because it was worn by Anthony Eden, but people interviewing me kinda want me to tell the real stories, not the bizarre things that pop out of my mouth

Panda Bites

12:59

Everyone always talks about Archimedes' Death Ray, but did you know he also invented Lik-M-Aid and the everlasting gobstopper?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Willie Wonka built a death ray?

1:00

Wait, WILLY WONKA IS ARCHIMEDES? ARCHIMEDES IS WILLY WONKA?"

Luhnow

1:00

Which would you say was my most underrated reliever acquisition - Harris, Pressly, or Osuna?

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