JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/21/2020

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/21/2020

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Quarantino Martinez

12:12

So the O's are among the biggest losers if the season goes AND if the season gets canceled? Figures.

Dbo

12:12

Chat! Chat! Chat! Chat!

I’m supposed to do a data analysis project for my masters program and was going to use ZiPs, any suggestions on a model I can create so I can share my inaccurate results?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

It would be interesting to focus more on a *decision* model

12:13

If that' sin your scope.

MOdeling how the decisions are made would be highly interesting and a cool challenge.

ZiPS has to do that somewhat, but it's more focused on being a predictive model in terms of performance

brad

12:13

Dan what happens when baseball opens on July 4th, then on July 21, Bregman tests positive and then July 25th, 20 more Astros players test positive?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Not sure, really.

12:14

But if it were *this* virulent, I think everyone would already have had it.

It's very contagious, but it's not measles

Dbo

12:14

Is melted ice cream a soup? I feel like soups have to be savory and not sweet, which is why cereal isn’t a soup

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Dessert Soup can be a thing

And BTW Dbo, if there's no season, you STILL have to use that fantasy team name, but next year

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

12:14

Why didn't you include the Twins on your teams with the most to lose from no 2020 piece? THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION OF OUR TIME or just nitpicking, one or the other.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I could have, I just cut off the list at five!

or was it 6?

12:15

I try not to leave Meg unwieldy 3000 word pieces to deal with

Ursine Orsulak

12:15

I was rooting for the lg twins and then their factory in India killed a bunch of people. Do I:Change horses midstream, quit the league entirely, or give in to the nihilism of capital?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

2020 is about embracing the void!

trophy

1

Guest

12:15

EW's most recent episode talked about Biff's betting book. If you had a *perfect* system for betting on baseball that was literally never wrong, you'd never share it or tell anyone about it though, right? at some point, Vegas would catch on and would make it difficult for you to keep your edge, so you'd just try to maximize your profits in as short amount of time as possible.

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I would never share it or tell anyone.

I'd get enough money to live comfortably for a lifetime and then stop.

Brian Wilson, Ashland, Oregon...

12:16

Good morning. There are LOTS of unknowns in this upcoming 2020 MLB draft, and tons of pitchers to choose from. Doesn't it make sense for teams to lean more towards "tooled-up" position players rather than so many pitchers that will be bountiful?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I think I'd go with safer players this year, simply because of the unknown of what player development will look like this year or next year.

12:18

Because here's what I think is what's happening:

12:19

Without a very quick vaccine, I think the coronavirus heralds the end of a minor league era in baseball, one as stark as the transition from independent minors to clubs/leagues connected with teams.

12:20

There can be baseball without a vaccine because there's so much money in it.

It's not the case with the minors. MLB will simply wait and see which minor league teams still exist after a year or two.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

12:21

On a scale of 1-10, you excitement level for the Snyder Cut of Justice League is _____?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

7

Billy Beane

12:21

Dan what's your proportion of playing Plunder vs Battle Royale in Warzone?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

About 90% Plunder. I find Plunder more fun, personally. You get a lot more action and get to choose your weapons and you can do more risky things because all you lose is some virtual money and 15 seconds.

12:23

Like in Plunder last night, there were two full squads fighting over a drop point so I divebombed a helicopter into them and the other three players on my squad could then run in and finish off survivors and we looted like $700,000

12:24

That's the kind of thing that Battle Royale doesn't encourage!

brad

12:24

Do the yanks gain or lose with a lost season? Off the books are Tanaka, Ellsbury, Paxton and Happ. they can bring back Tanaka likely for less per year, and save about $60M with the other three, which they can use that money to sign judge and/or torres long term. hopefully then Judge has surgery to get healthy too. But they lose a season that they can compete

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think it's a mixed bag with the Yankees.

Rat Day Man

12:24

MATT DAMON

Sam

12:24

How short do you think the season would need to be for ZIPS to give every team a semi-realistic (at least a 10% chance) at the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

40 maybe?

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