JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/22/25

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 5/22/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

Chat time chat time, something that rhymes with chat time

lime!

slime!

grime!

splat chime!

fat dime!

Guest

12:00

If you could 'relegate' one MLB franchise, UK soccer-style, and 'promote' a minor-league city into MLB, which cities would you choose?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

relegate oakland/las vegas, promote Charlotte

Key Flaw

12:01

If you were a hitter and had to pick a percentage where your strikouts would equal your walks, what what you pick? For optimal output or aesthetics? (beyond the outliers around 0% and 50%, though those would be interesting...)

Dan Szymborski

12:02

Not sure output, but I don't like standing around, so 1% walks and strikeouts

12:02

thoughts on Parker Meadows? Considering stashing him, wondering if you’d prefer him to any of Stowers, hays, Mullins or cowser?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I'm not sure he's obviously superior to them, simply because injury and you don't realy get compensated for his defesne

12:03

what percent does Zips give Judge to win the triple crown?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Haven't actually run it, but maybe I will next week!

Sodo Mojo

12:04

Did the Mariners wait too long to trade Harry Ford he doesn't seem to have a path in Seattle with Cal entrenched and his prospect shine seems to have dimmed a bit in the last year.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

It's not like he's been awful or anything

12:05

but there were a lot of questions, so I'm not sure ther was ever a big lucrative deal out there for him

Matt VW

12:07

Every full MLB season since 2018 has featured at least three 100-loss teams. From 2003-2017 there were zero seasons with three or more 100 loss teams. Is the recent lower floor just a blip, or is there a real shift driving it?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I'm not sure the strategy about rebuilding has really changed all tha tmuch

Bruce

12:07

What AAA hitting stats / qualities translate the best to the big league level? Which ones "mean" the least?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Generally, power and aggression translate best. Really passive players (not a lot of balsl in play, high walk rate) tend to translate poorly, which ZiPS takes into account in translations

Billy Bob

12:08

Should the Mariners look to add a 1B, 3B or OF at the deadline or just roll with what they have?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I think they ought to look at the bats available, but it's hard to say EXACTLY what will be most crucial in two months

Alec

12:08

choking mime!

Dan Szymborski

12:09

If you choked a mime, would they make a sound? Or would they keep to the bit and only motion that they are choking?

4 fWAR

12:09

A week ago, only Aaron Judge had made it to 4 fWAR. Today, only Aaron Judge has 4 fWAR (now it's 4.3)

Dan Szymborski

12:09

He's a really good player!

Wirefan

12:09

Is Zips buying into Trent Grisham's early season success? How many PA's when a guy has a somewhat established baseline are needed for ZiPS to start weighting a potential breakout?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

To an extent, ZiPS was never really down on Grisham, so it's not grumpy about his season

12:10

But there's no X PAs since a breakout isn't a binary tihng. The larger the breakout, the fewer the PAs needed to see a real long term change

That's why I have a bloated mess of algorithms to sort through it!

12:10

How worries are we about Yelich?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

mild-to-moderate

12:11

Concerned Citizen

12:11

Dear Mr. Fangraphs, There are too many projection systems nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Ideally not ZiPS? I like buying stuff

v2micca

12:13

As a Braves fan, how concerned should I be about Spencer Strider. It wasn't just his velocity, but his breaking pitches lacked depth and bite and his command looked off.

Dan Szymborski

12:15