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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/28/26

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Galahad

12:16

Are teams pinch-hitting too much? The performance of pinch-hitters has been dreadful this year; a 76 OPS+, even with (I assume) holding the platoon advantage disproportionately. The numbers have been trending down for PHs the last few years, and it may be random variance, but I suspect that the things that make hitting hard may be more magnified for pinch-hitters in the current environment.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I've always believed teams pinch-hit too often

There's a massive pinch-hitting penalty

bcubs

12:17

Is curtis mead for real? and who do you expect to be for real, tj rumfield or mead?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

to an extent, there were always things to like about mead

probably mroe confident with mead

Curtis Mead Trade Appreciator

12:17

Assuming pitcher health is a mug's game, but if Fried comes back and Cole, Rodon, and Schlittler are all healthy, who of Warren and Weathers should take a seat? Both are 26 and have been solidly above average.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I might go six

Izzy

12:18

Griffin has been great! He’s 19. What more do people want?

Tom

12:18

In a standard head-to-head dynasty league, I don’t need a starting shortstop since I have Griffin. However, I was offered K. Campbell, Correa, and a first-round pick (where we can draft minor leaguers and foreign players) for Corey Seager. What are your thoughts on this trade?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I might take the trade, though it depends just HOW free you guys are with minor leaguer reserves

Monty

12:19

Mark Walter loses a hand of cards with Mark Attanasio and has to give Ohtani and Yamamoto to the Brewers for free. Would the Dodgers still have better World Series Odds? Currently at 23.9% to 5.2% on the Playoff Odds page.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Probably not. Division would crash quite a bit

EccentricATLFan

12:19

Follow-up question to the music part: Does it explicitly exclude music that the player produced themselves? (Such as if they decided to go with something insane like "experimental bagpipes-and-theremin ska" music that they randomly have with their home band on the side?)

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I think technically they could do that

Dafinsrock

12:20

What do the O's do with Trevor Rogers if he doesn't improve soon?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I don't think the O's are overflowing with options

Mookington Esq.

12:21

Has Franklin Arias’ projection moved significantly with the way he’s started the year?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Yes, about 8 points of OPS+ a year

Asher

12:22

Thoughts on Mcgonigles veteran like plate approach. His at bats seem very mature, thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

They are

He was a very "finished" hitter as a prospect

Dale

12:22

Is it time to admit that the Brewers run the NL Central after sweeping the Cubs, and Cardinals?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

For the moment at least!

Guest

12:23

are there any herbs and spices accidentally revealed to you that you have nonetheless sworn to continued secrecy about?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

They're always a few, but off the record

Asher

12:24

How close are we to a Jesus Made call up?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I don't think super close. He'll have Triple-A time first presumably

Fin

12:24

Who does ZiPS like more ROS (hypothetically): Trevor Story or Franklin Arias? I think I know the answer already, and Arias probably isn't getting the call until 2027, but I want to see what it thinks Arias would look like in MLB right now.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Arias

Lord Thunder

12:25

I imagine this season is doing a number on Tatis Jr.'s ZIPs projections.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

ZiPS is STILL trying to figure out WTF is going on with Tatis

12:27

A lot of the stuff you expect to see with a guy whose line dropped off like that just aren't there

12:28

His statcast data is that of a fairly normal, if slightly below average Tatis year

but his line looks like Eckstein

Galahad

12:28

Don't fanbases tend to overrate the ability of teams to "sell high"? The comments I see suggest that if a guy has a three-week hot streak due to a BABIP spike, the rest of the league will be caught unaware that this may not be a true change in talent level.

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Yes, though it's probably colored by how teams run historically

Because you COULD sell high more often 30 years ago

12:29

I would guess, very confidently, that the variance of team-to-team evaluations on individual players is much smaller now than it was 30 years ago

Galahad

12:29

Speaking of Kade Anderson, can players stop having such generic names that I am going to endlessly mix-up? P.S. I am not a crackpot.

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