JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/28/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/28/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:43

Depending on how you deal with a few of the cursory issues (like methods for eliminating guys who may be injured), I get between 15 and 30 points of wOBA penalty

walkup music

12:43

FWIW, I believe Jordan Walker has/does use a song by the artist Argo, who is in fact Victor Scott II

Dan Szymborski

12:44

If I were a player, I'd use the opening of the second movement of Prokofiev's Scythian Suite

OR

12:45

I'd hire a songwriter to make bespoke songs that make fun of the worst aspects of whatever team I'm playing against

laughing

2

You could get a songwriter to have interchangeable lyrics for the opposing team's rotation

12:46

Kind of a like an upscale version of the passive-aggressive AI songs I target family members and friends who get on my nerves for something

laughing

1

12:49

For instance, a few months ago, I gave my mom a ride home from my sister's. I was tight on time but I agreed, but on the way back, she whines like a small child that she was hungry and wanted McDonald's. So I stopped off and then she froze when we got to the PA system like she had never seen a McDonald's menu before and we were there like five minutes and then person inside was starting to get annoyed

so I naturally sent her this. https://suno.com/s/rmI7QdrXCOjPq2jT

Steve E

12:50

Just wanted to point out that while the team win totals have usually been off, ZIPS was right about several Brewers players. For instance, Sal Frelick has cratered from where he finished last season and ZIPS predicted much of the falloff. Good job, Dano.

Asher

12:50

Im wanting to go into sports writing in the future, any advice?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Write, write, write

cool

1

an interact with other writers

12:51

Networking *is* important

12:52

Like I've had two jobs in the last 17 years (ESPN from 2009-2018 and then FanGraphs since) and I got both because the people were already very familiar with my work

so getting your work out there is important

12:53

If I ever need to do an actual job interview, I may be in trouble - I've had one interview in my life, for my part-time job at Stebbins-Anderson in Towson when I was 16

Fin

12:53

Curious about what you mean by "that kind of thing is a waste of teams' time." Why isn't it useful to have a model for player value? How do they project player value, if not with some kind of WAR formula?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

making a *proprietary* generalized WAR model isn't that useful

Guest

12:53

would you rather have a 72 mph swing and 7.0 length, or 75 mph swing and 8.0 length

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Gimme the sing

InsertWittyNameHere

12:53

"The thing is, a typical 1995 front office COULD have been replaced by competent fans" Why isn't there a movie about this and which actor could accurately portray the Digital Dandy?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

True story, a dear friend of mine is not into baseball, and she has little direct knowledge about what I do

other than the basics

12:55

I knew she had seen Moneyball, and she knew I had consulted with teams, so I told her "kind of the type of stuff that Jonah Hill's character did"

12:56

Which she took far too literally, and she got the idea that Andrew Brand was a composite character and I was one of the people it was based off of

And TOLD people that, which I was not aware of for years

Boy, was she red when I find out that she had been doing that and I teased her about it

12:57

I think she thought the resemblance was intentional

Michael Chernus would probably be the best cast option

war2d2

12:57

Have you ever tried to do a ZiPS projection for managers? It’s seems like such a nebulous thing, where clearly some managers are better than others, but sometimes it doesn’t seem to matter. I don’t think anyone reasonable would think Mattingly’s managing is why the Phils have an .800 winning% since he took over, their best players just stopped slumping. By the same token Hinch was a wunderkind for years until he’s suddenly terrible? I don’t buy it. My personal feeling is that it’s very possible for a bad manager to make his team worse, but the very best a good one can do is keep them from missing a baseline wins projection. What are your thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

I haven't, simply because I don't know how to make it non terrible

12:58

I'd like to being able model everything. But that's unrealistic, so I try to focus on projecting things a model is good at projecting

Guest

12:58

Per Savant, Tatis is hitting far more groundballs than in the past. Up to 53.6% from 47.2%. His Pull Air% is down to 7.3%, the 4th straight decline, although he is pulling far less, 25.8% from 37.6% career. Seems he is hitting more level-down, whether intentional or not. Solid hitter but that may be where his power went.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Yeah, but going to ZERO homers is a pretty big change

Galahad

12:58

Do you find yourself quietly rooting for and against various players because you think their current performance is misleading, and it's rewarding when ZiPS is validated?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I honestly try not to, since that might affect my fandom of baseball if I get obsessed with that

Guest

12:59

"It's also likely why home run dependent teams slightly *overperform* in the playoffs, where pitching quality is higher"

and that's without even adjusting for fall weather as a countervailing force against power?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

yes

Getting to great pitchers with homers is an easier task, at the MLB level than chaining a bunch of hits against a great pitcher

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