JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/5/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/5/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:17

Can't find it right now though.

Matt (Oceanside)

12:17

Dan the Man! Hope you are doing well sir! A couple weeks ago you guys mentioned that the Dodgers prospects list was next up. It's been two weeks and I'm dying! You guys aren't aloud to have lives! :) Thank you for all you guys do for us! Appreciate the content! YOU GUYS ARE AWESOME!!!!! Especially ZIPS!!!!

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I'm sure it's on the way! Our prospect team puts a ton of work into these lists while still covering prospects live. It's not like ZiPS where you have a definite deadline; think of it as an ongoing prospect discussion

12:20

Oops, I accidentally hit delete on a Reds reliever question.

The question is what relievers would be interesting at the deadline.

Most likely guys closer to free agency so no art warrn

warren

12:21

I think Jeff Hoffman could be interesting and Buck Farmer isn't toast yet.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:21

When you consult for MLB teams, what is the form of the deliverable that you provide? A spreadsheet of projections? Data File? A "Memo From The Desk Of Daniel J. Szymborski"?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Usually a spreadsheet or csv of requested data.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:21

How would you fix the ball issue? (I'm referring to the MLB baseball)

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I'm not quite sure at this point. Generally, my biggest complaint is transparency

But I think we're at the point where the offense/defense imbalance is too high.

12:23

I think I'd revisit pitcher distance/mound while also livening the ball up considearbly

I wish they'd experiment with 88-foot first base in Atlantic League

Adam

12:23

Has ZiPS adjusted its expectations for offense for the current year? What # does it now expect will lead the league in batting average vs. preseason expectations? ERA?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Don't have the exact number in front of me; it melds the expected offense with the new one.

But for all I know, MLB could suddenly quietly throw in a bunch of lively baseballs without telling anyone because that's how they roll

Guest

12:24

who on the current Cubs roster (position player-wise) will be part of the next "core" group that will hopefully have success in making the playoffs...Suzuki, Hoerner, Happ? Madrigal a reach?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think you answered your own question!

Yes on madrigal even though I dont' tthink he has huge upside

GA Blood

12:25

Looking at Rowdy Tellez’s discrepancy between wOBA and xwOBA but also his ROS projections. When does performance and expected performance start to impact projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

ZiPS uses a simpler model in-season, so no zstats, but you'll have an impact from at-bat one. The exact impact will vary, of course.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:25

Should the Angels just trade Jo Adell to a team that could play him every day yet give the Angels back something useful?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

It's not a bad idea.

Chris

12:26

I'm here to argue that 71 wins vs 64 wins actually matters at some point. As an Orioles fan, is it reasonable for me to have lost all interest in following a roster of mostly AAAA players? Even if some big prospects are on the cusp, there's still several years of losing; why should fans investing time and energy when management is clearly taking them for granted?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

The problem is that teams know that 71 vs. 64 doesn't really matter to most, which is why it would have been nice for MLB to be interested in incentivizing winning 71 instead of 64 games financially. The MLBPA was interested, MLB refused to discuss even teh concept.

12:28

I'm not sure the Orioles are necessarily taking fans for granted. It's just that they had little talent to trade by the time the rebuild started in earnest and the Machado return didn't work out, nor did most of the fringier prospects of 2019-2020 period. The team was probably hurt more than most by the loss of 2020 minor league season

Austin

12:28

Do you believe Cano is going to get picked?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Yes

brad penny for your thoughts

12:28

has the rockies start interpolated your brain?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

No. Mediocre teams have good months and vice-versa

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:28

Since you are a member of the Cincinnati baseball writers club, could you please make the Reds do better and spend more on players?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

You greatly overestimate my influence!

James

12:29

Is Verlander really just going to be his usual self at 39 coming off TJ?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

We've really gotten good at elbows. Not so much at shoulders.

12:30

And by we, I dont' mean literally: I have made absolutely no impact, positive or negative, on TJ surgeries

David

12:30

Will Kyle Lewis save my Mariners?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'd be skeptical. But Kelenic's been SO awful...

But J-Rod has come around a ton since first weeks

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