JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/6/21

James

12:03

Trent Grisham is good. But is it possible he might be under the radar, star level good?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

He's certainly *played* like a star the last 80ish games now. I'm not convinced that he's quite that good, but he's certainly proving me wrong.

Beepollen

12:03

So, the Dodgers - what the hell's going on???

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I should note they have a 20-12 pythag record, which equates to a 101-win schedule. And that's going to be far more predictive than their current record is

James

12:05

What is going on with all of the league wide injuries? Pandemic short season related? Pitchers throwing harder than ever? SSS?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I haven't looked at injury rate compared to previous Aprils, but I wouldn't be surprised if the weird 2020 made things riskier.

Rick H.

12:05

What is the all time negative WAR effect for a manager? ASKING FOR A FRIEND.

Dan Szymborski

12:05

That's a real messy question! It's hard to make manager WAR

Jorge Washington

12:06

Is there a player in the Major Leagues you expect to be able to make good chili? And who do you think that is?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Well, that's one I've never thought of before!

I wouldn't trust any Cincinnati Red to make chili

just as a safety issue

Jorge Washington

12:07

What does ZIPS and its creator think of Cole Irvin?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

ZiPS sees Irvin as rougly average and I'm about on the same page on this one

What's that Odor

12:07

What's with all the no-hitters so far this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Lower BA means more no-hitters!

Kim

12:09

Any thoughts on what the Yanks are doing re: their pitchers ratcheting up changeup usage?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

They haven't been forthcoming, but I expect that it has to do with replacing Rothschild with Matt Blake; the changeups were bumped last year too

My Name?

12:10

What's your outlook on Kyle Tucker? Just a BABIP issue, or anything else there to be concerned about?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Ain't nobody having a .177 BABIP as predictive.

Jorge Washington

12:11

Are you into craft beers?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Yes, though I drink less than I used to be a good margin

Alcohol triggers my GERD far more than it used to. I drink about one beer a week now

Dr. Frank Jobe

12:12

With pitchers seeming to continue to get ahead vs. hitters on the whole, is it time to revisit the classic split of available WAR between position players and pitchers? (I think it was 55% go to position players and 45% to pitchers).

Dan Szymborski

12:12

No, I don't see why it would work this way

Pitchers don't make up any larger percentage of the results of a pitcher vs. hitter matchup than before

12:13

And WAR is a scarcity issue.

If every pitcher suddenly throws 18 K/9, it doesn't mean that pitchers are objectively more valuable, so long as the pitcher has the same predictive value of a particular batter vs. pitcher matchup

Max Kepler

12:13

Have you ever been to Europe? If so what places did you visit?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'm not a big international traveler because I hate flying. I've been to England, Scotland, and Germany at different times

I don't really do touristy stuff

SharkCueto

12:14

The Cubs are fixed! Lights out bullpen & Matt Duffy is the contact hitter they've been searching for. World Series, here we come!

Jacques Pederson

12:14

Is there an advantage to a "stars and scrubs" approach vs a "no holes" approach in that the weaknesses are easier to identify and address in-season?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Stars and scrubs make it easier simply because you have places to upgrade

But it's also a risk in having more value locked up in fewer players

SharkCueto

12:15

How does a pitcher adding a new pitch (example: Alzolay adding his slider mid season last year) change ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

It doesn't; ZiPS looks at pitch data, but it's results focused

Projections aren't a thing where you can just say "pitcher adds slider, ERA+ goes up 10 points"

Greg

12:15

How good in percentage terms do you think ZiPS is compared to whatever the best projection system will be in 2050? I.e. 75% as good at projecting?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

97% or so. All the low and middle hanging fruit are long gone

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