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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 5/7/18
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yossle
2:45
Is David Price done?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:45
No
Rex Manning Day
2:45
It's May and ZiPS currently projects Mike Trout to finish the year with 9.7 WAR. I don't have a question, I just wanted to put that out there.
Sean
2:45
Dan, what month comes before May but after March?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:45
Germinal
ComputerChairGM
2:46
Matt Harvey for Neil Walker? Could help both teams
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:46
Seems more interesting for the Mets than the Yankees.
2:47
Let's be honest, Matt Harvey, right now, doesn't really have a case over Random AAA Duffer
The Yankees ought to have zero interest in lottery tickets on their active roster.
Uncertainty has to be treated very differently from a team trying for 100 wins than a team trying for 100 losses
Mountie Votto
2:48
What would your plan for the Reds be? Shit is baaaaad, yo
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:49
Trade what they have left, stay the course.
Try to sell Votton on a trade.
James
2:49
Thoughts on Evan Gattis using the Billy Hamilton approach at the plate?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:49
Suboptimal
Nick L.
2:49
Fernando Tatis Jr. was slow out of the gate last year too. He seems to be heating up. Any worry he isn't The Chosen One in San Diego?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:49
no
XuXuX
2:49
Cole Hamels has a $20 million team option for 2019, with a $6 million buyout.  Do you think that whatever team he's playing on will find it worthwhile to pick up that option?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:49
I'd likely sign Hamels to a 1/14 contract this offseason.
(the 6 is already gone, after all)
Josh
2:50
It’s funny to even consider getting excited about Trevor Cahill, but, should we be getting excited about Trevor Cahill?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:50
He had flashes last year too!
2:51
And let's not forget, 3 of his 4 starts this year were against dreadful teams
Pad Squad
2:51
The Padres have a lot of prospect depth but few future superstars. Do you think they should just let their prospects play out, or should they use most of them as trade chips to acquire real star-power in a year or two?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:51
Play it out.  The Padres aren't as close to being good as they think they are.
They shouldn't be acquiring win now guys yet
Patty V
2:51
For the Projected Standings page you guys have on FG, do you update ROS projections based on injuries / trades / adjusting your prior expectations, or is it just an adjustment based on your original 2018 projection? Like a team over-performing is expected to under-perform to match the original prediction?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:51
I would never, in a million years, project in the latter way.  That's not a projection.
2:52
It would literally be desecrating Bayes's corpse!
Matt
2:52
With regard to your Chris Sale analogy - why don't more teams hire elephants?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:52
Oakland has exclusivity over elephants.
Unfortunately, San Francisco allowed the elephant exclusivity in return for like 90% of California rights
Sean
2:52
Chase Field is no longer a hitter's park, FYI. ESPN has the park factors  at .866 and the exit velo is way down.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:53
If you're looking at one month park factors, you've done something terribly wrong.
2:54
There's a data trap, believing a miniscule sample size as more predictive becuase it happens to coincide with what you believe would happen.
*One year* park factors are terrible.
19 home games and 15 road games?  With no chance at any kind of long-term evening out of teams and players?
2:55
It's woth an "oh, that's interesting" but not much more.
Erik
2:55
The Torres-Chapman trade from 2016 continues to make no sense. Yes, the Cubs won a World Series, which could justify literally any trade, but couldn't they have gotten a lesser reliever and held onto one of the top prospects in baseball? Don't they win more World Series from 2016-2025 with seven-plus years of Torres versus three months of Chapman? Seems to be a big dent on Epstein's resume.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:55
I didn't like it at the time and I still dont'
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