JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/1/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/1/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:20

It's very important to us to *not* replicate content

love

1

from ourselves or anyone else!

Which is why I'll make sure and include ZiPS things at times even if that's not the focus of the article; it's important to us to give you guys stuff that will have *something* new, be it an opinion or a fact or a projection or whatever

12:21

It's a small company and we all know each other very well, so there's no friction in our slack discussions or dibs on topics

As far as I know: there could be a rash of FUCKING SZYMBORSKI!!!!! private messages that I do not know about, but I don't know about them!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:21

Can the city of Oakland just use eminent domain on the A's already?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Meh

12:22

Ignoring the legal questions, I personally find use of it in this sense to be fundamentally immoral. And I don't approve doing fundamentally immoral things, even to crappy people.

cool

1

Droopy Slider

12:23

Hi Dan! How does a player’s actual season production impact ZIPS ROS projections over the course of the season? How does the weight given to actual season production change as the season progresses (1/3, 1/2, & 2/3 marks)? Many thanks. Love your work.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I can tell you how ZIPS does it, though not how Steamer and others do

ZiPS derives it in-season projections empirically based on player stats at every date of every season

12:24

For example, the first thing ZiPS does in making a projection is to establish a very basic baseline

12:25

that differs based on stats - a hitter's walk rate will contain a lot more season-to-date info than a hitter's BABIP.

and then ZiPS makes adjustments, in the full-fat model, based on the zStats

Zac

12:26

Trea Turner has been bad. Is it enough to meaningfully shift his ZIPs projections yet? That contract could be groin-grabbingly terrible if he forgot how to hit.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

It has already!

12:27

ZiPS projected wRC+ has shiifted by like 19 points in the negative since preseason

vomit

1

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:30

Robo umps would eliminate catcher framing, making the skill worthless. This would probably see the rise of better throwing and hitting catchers. This is a good trade-off!

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I know people like catching framing being a thing, but I don't like skillsets being based off of fooling the judges

12:31

Even in the kindest description, catchers "making a positive case for a good pitch" I don't think that the pitch should be part of what is a bright line judgment

12 to 6

12:32

with trading season rapidly approaching, would:

eddys leonard and landon knack for stroman; or

diego cartaya and eddys leonard for giolito and tim anderson

strike a chord for the respective teams?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I don't think this would be enough

12:34

Cartaya would likely be part of any big trade I think

but I'm not sure the needle has moved *that* much for Knack around baseball

and Leonard isn't a centerpiece of any deal for a very good major leaguer

Guest

12:34

If you made a list of underrated pitches, Dauri Moreta’s slider has to be up there, right? Screwball movement + lots of whiffs makes it so interesting, but not many people are really talking about it.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Moreta's is neat because he's got a few different spins on it

I haven't run it, but I'd bet he's way up there in variance of horizontal and vertical movement

sometimes it's kinda used like a 12-6 curve and sometimes there's a lot of horizontal movement

Curt

12:35

AL East shaping up to be a fun summer. Cavalry coming for NYY, Baltimore in the thick and TB creating a top tier offense out of thin air. Which way you see this going?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I think the Rays cushion will hold

Guest

12:36

Alright is Rob Manfred THAT bad?

The juiced ball era is a pretty poor look. There is absolutely an argument that Astros players should've gotten suspended for their scandal. But besides that, I would argue that Manfred has had a moderately successful reign as commissioner. Avoided losing games during the lockout, managed to figure out some baseball in 2020. Some rule changes I'm not crazy about, but I can look past that

If he manages to change the RSN model and end blackouts, that would be awesome. Then again, he only does what owners want him to do, so maybe they deserve the credit

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Depends from what point of view

from the owners POV he's decent

But I dont' see what value he's brought to the table to make the game overall better for fans

Cy Tanner

12:39

Who gets sent down, me or Logan?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Neither ideally

12:40

At this point, I'd be putting Quantrill in long relief/spot start duty when McKenzie returns

he can't just bleed 20-30% of his K rate every year

McGraw45

12:41

Padres media rights the first step to ending the anti-competitive insanity of RSNs?

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