JotCast | Dan Szymborski Fangraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski Fangraphs Chat - 6/10/21

Dan Szymborski

11:59

dangit

12:00

There we go, third time's the charm!

Jon G

12:00

Has Kris Bryant played himself back into $200M+ on the open market?

Dan Szymborski

12:00

Doing a piece on the Cubs Big Three FA for tomorrow!

Max

12:01

How are you (and zips) feeling about Jared Walsh? Is the sample size and eye test large enough to say “all-star first basemen for many years for the angels?”

Dan Szymborski

12:01

ZiPS is *almost* there, but not quite. the ROS wRC+ projection is up to 126 (preseason 103!). Gains tend to be a little stickier in season.

12:02

But I think he's bent the curve enough that he's probably an above-average 1B in his prime years

The power improvement certainly plays

Ben Cherington

12:03

Hudson Head has been off to a slow start at the plate, but is taking a lot of walks and getting on base. What do you view him long term for the Pirates?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Still a bit early for me, but feels a bit Rich Beckery to me maybe? That's not necessarily a bad thing

James

12:05

Kyle Tucker's Baseball Savant page shows him having an MVP level season brought down by bad luck. Is that a realistic picture of his potential?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Luck is such a word fraught with hidden terrors!

12:06

Let's just say that there's evidence that he's a secret superstar having a regular star season

12:07

He's a superstar in a superstar machine, taking it to the staaaaaars. Emotion lotion!

Gil

12:07

Dan, a recent Defector article laments lightning's (yes, the actual natural thing) slow descent from Ace pitcher to 'back end of career innings eater'. Even with this knowledge of its diminished capabilities, where does lightning rank in your "please keep this natural occurance far away from me" list?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

Wait, what?

12:08

I dunno, I still wouldn't want to be hit by lightning

12:09

But I guess a combination of people working outside less, increased awareness of lightning safety, and better medical triage to deal with people hit by lightning would all servce to diminish it as a thread somewhat?

Ernesto

12:09

Andujar looks to be back to pulling the ball. If he regains 70% of his 2018, is he a lock to play nearly every day with the Yankees?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Meh-minus

12:10

He's only really interesting at 100% of his 2018

and even then he'll be overrated

The lack of a position obviously hurts

Jefferson

12:11

Has Zips ever used spider tack?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

THATS A COMPLICATED QUESTION AND I DO NOT KNOW WHY YOU'RE ASKING SOME THINGS HAPPEN AT TIMES BUT I DO NOT KNOW AND I HATE TO SPECULATE ON THINGS I DID NOT OR DID NOT DO HOW AM I TO KNOW TRULY WHETHER I DID SOMETHING OR NOT IN THE METAPHYSICAL SENSE, I AM OFFENDED YOU WOULD EVEN ASK

Pirates fan

12:12

I've seen a few things out there that the asking price for Adam Frazier is high, which it should be. What is high? You think the pirates could get a say, top 5-10 prospect? Or is that to high? Also what is the likelihood Bryan Reynolds is traded?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

If you mean around *baseball* I don't think so. On a farm system, I could definitely see an average farm system team's #5 prospect going to Pittsburgh.

Gil

12:14

re: David Peterson

How does a guy strike out more people but walk mostly the same amount and ALSO become more hittable? That doesn't seem to track for me and frustrates me to no end watching him.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

More grounders does tend to result in a higher BABIP and more hits

Though I think there's a lot of noise involved in the stats still

Jefferson

12:15

Give me some Bobby Witt Jr hype! I need to know what the computer overlords think

Dan Szymborski

12:15

That he's htiting well in Double-A is a pretty big deal

Kyle

12:15

Rank the types of cheating in order of actual impact on a baseball game: sticky stuff, steroids/PEDs, sign stealing

Dan Szymborski

12:15

1, 3, 2

Though you can define impact a number of ways

12:16

altering baseballs is obviously number - the effect is direct

12:17

and I'm still completely unconvinced, from the data that PED/steroids isn't a *safety* issue rather than a performance once

I've spent a decade looking at groups of players found positive vs. the rest and there's *zero* unusual aging patterns in projections either before or after, as you would expect with a significant issue

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Dan Szymborski hosts a chat