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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/11/18
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AvatarDan Szymborski
2:03
And awaaaay we go!
2:04
Sorry, I had been on the phone and then I had to go to the bathroom.
And I don't want to chat from the bathroom, lest someone figure it out somehow and then giving everyone an unpleasant vision.
Preller
2:04
What is the prospect i should be targeting when trading Tyson ross
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:05
A good one?  I think it depends on the team really.  The fact that he's a free agent is going to keep the price down, I think I'd gear more towards a number of interesting lottery tickets than trying to get one specific guy.
2:06
Let's not forget, it was obvious to trade him in 2015 and htey didn't.
Devil Ray J. Johnson
2:06
Do you have a business card that reads "Owner-Operator of the ZiPS Projection System"?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
It just says writer.  You shouldn't have to explain your business card!
Cole Blaque
2:06
What is the ZiPS for new (old) Jose Manuel Fernandez?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:06
Don't have his MLE handy right now.  But ZIPS has been generally optimistic with him.
Josh Nelson
2:06
Why is Manny Machado still with Baltimore?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:07
I've been hearing a lot of insider buzz for awhile that the packages aren't up to what they were hoping for so far.
I believe the O's set their targets too high.  Machado is amazing, but you're only getting two months of Machado.  And for a team to get`a lot for a two-month player, no matter how awesome, you have to have a very specific set of needs.
2:08
Someone like Chris Sale, traded wiht a few years left on his deal, is going to have a lot more value *and* a wider variety of teams with a specific need.
2:09
Everyone can use a pitcher, but Machado, with only a two-month window, would need teams with a very specific short-term 3B/SS need.
Xolo
2:09
Is ZiPS buying Renfroe's newfound plate discipline?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:09
You'll see it more in full season-to-season ZiPS rather than in-season.  I keep the in-season model simpler so that it can practically be run.
2:10
Because it needs to be run in the morning.
2:11
I'm good with numbers, I'm terrific with probability, and I'm now one of the most experienced in sabermetrics still active today.  But what I am *not* is a programmer.  I just took my required compsci in college, got my B, and didn't pay too much attention to the C++ we did.  Because it was a 9 AM class and I'm not good at caring stuff before noon!
2:12
So ZiPS, like PECOTA before they did it, is overengineered, so hard to run the full set every morning.
CamdenWarehouse
2:12
I'm only going to get a burger at IHOP if the patty comes between two pancakes
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:12
I don't know WTF IHOP is doing.
2:14
You have such a good brand that has near-universal consumer knowledge.  People actually pronounce your acronym!  And then to muddy it up?  For fast-casual burgers?  Are you frigging kidding me?  You're going to move out of your highly successful niche to chase BURGERS?  What's the audience for the burgers/  I don't see them shifting the Five Guys/Smashburger/In-N-Out guys over.
Kiermaier's Diverticulitis
2:14
Hi Dan.  I have no animadversions for this chat. I do have animadversions about Dallas Keuchel and IHob. 2 questions. Is it pathetic an american league pitcher can't run from 3rd to homepltae without going on the DL? #getinplayingshape. Q2. If you take the makings of a sub sandwich and put it in a tortilla..do you have a submarine sandwich or a burrito?         Foodies Unite!
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:15
YOu get the Institute for Justice weekly court decision ru ndown too?
There's where I learned the word.
1.  I think MLBers should all be in better shape than me, except for the Bartolo Colon waiver.
Depends how you're using the burrito.  I'm an ingredient rebel, structural purist.
2:16
All Cats Are Beautiful
2:16
How long is the Red Sox window of contention? One more year after 2018? Two more years?  The cupboards are bare and the cheap young guys are getting expensive.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:17
I think they're well enough set that they can keep things churning for awhile.  As long as your team will invest *and* you're drafting and developing players well, once you *are* good, you can maintain for a long time.
Lunch Angle
2:18
Eduardo Escobar has been hitting the tar out of the ball. What do you expect from him going forward?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:18
I think that a lot of his play is for real, though I think we're seeing a career season.  But I wouldn't be surprised if he was a real 110 OPS+ guy now.
Maybe even better for ahwile.
Devil Ray J. Johnson
2:19
Kelvin Herrera has issued no BB this year in 24.2 IP.  If he keeps that up, how quickly will we see a notable drop in his ROS ZiPS BB/9 projection (which is currently 2.47 against a 2.58 career BB/9)?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
I'm s urprised it hasn't dropped farther.
I think full year-to-year ZiPS will capture it better.
Steve
2:19
What's wrong with Gary Sanchez?  Underlying stats seem normal for him, is this all a babip thing?  I saw somewhere that he has a <.100 babip on grounders...
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
The thing is, a <.200 BABIP is never real for any minimally competent hitter.
2:21
Put it this way:  Pitchers, as a group, have been at a .215-.225 BABIP historically.  And that's *with* a lot of bunting.
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