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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/11/18
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AvatarDan Szymborski
2:37
ZiPS had him at 1.1 WAR this year (in 400ish PA).  1.5 in 2017.  1.9 in 2016.
All Cats Are Beautiful
2:37
Have you ever met a major leaguer and been disappointed they weren't the person you'd hoped they would be?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:37
Not really.  I try to be fairly dispassionate about players.
Ari
2:38
What is one of your strong preseason opinions that you will now openly admit that you were wrong?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:38
Matt Kemp is a legitimate major league player again.
HE'S ACTUALLY PLAYING DEFENSE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN A CADAVER
Dunt
2:38
Why do people think Michael Kopech or Carlos Rodon are the future White Sox aces when Dylan Covey exists?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:38
Kopech has high high upside.  And high bust potential
Bo
2:38
Braves should sell high on Markakis regardless of the standings come July, yes?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:38
It depends.
2:39
I think arguably no.
Front offices have advanced enough that they generally don't crazy evaluate guys like Markakis as highly as htey did even 10 years ago
2:40
and they wouldn't get much for two months of Markakis
and the Braves are likely to have very high-leverage games
Now, if the Braves are 10 games out on July 31st, take what you can get, but if they're not, Markakis has uses.
A Tribe Called Kipnis
2:40
Where does Mike Moustakas find a new home?  1B for the Angels with Ohtani out?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:40
I think the Angels should be seriously calling
2:41
I think the PHillies should consider a rental if they're still in it July 31
Devil Ray J. Johnson
2:41
Do you think Ohtani could pitch left-handed?  Maybe not a sub-3.50 ERA, but maybe 4.25?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:41
I wouldn't put it past him.
All Cats Are Beautiful
2:41
Which is your favorite Star Trek?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:41
Later seasons of DS9
2:42
There was no Star Trek before or since as compelling an hour as In the Pale Moonlight
Mike
2:42
Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, how do the Dodgers continue to do this? Luck or front office skill or a mix?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:42
I think there's a skill
but it's always good to be lucky!
HEY YO
2:42
But Joc Pederson tho...
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:42
I picked him as one of the 2018 breakouts!
2:44
Pederson had a fairly miserable 2017 season, even earning him a stint for Oklahoma City (still feels weird that the Dodgers AAA franchise isn't Albuquerque).  A lot of his offensive woes have to do with his .241 BABIP.  ZiPS thinks he should have had a .296 BABIP in 2017 based on his hit ball profile and while he has underperformed the ZiPS BABIP in the past by about 15 points in the first two season, even a .280 BABIP would have put his OPS+ around 115-120 rather than 95.

The largest flaw in Pederson's offensive game has been his plate discipline, but his overall weak season camouflaged his progress in that front.  He swung at a lower rate of out-of-zone pitches than he did in either 2015 or 2016 and set a career high for swinging at the in-zone ones.  Despite a career-high in overall swing rate, his swinging strike rate dropped to 9.5%, actually better than the league-average, a first for him.  Two years ago it was at 14%.
2:45
My other breakouts from that piece were Christian Yelich, Nick Castellanos, Nomar Mazara, Carlos Martinez, Adam Morgan, Danny Salazar if healthy, Dinelson Lamet.
Definitely bombed on the last two
now yelich cmart are good, but I argued that they had MVP/Cy upisde
CamdenWarehouse
2:45
how's the kitten?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:46
She's doing well.  She's no longer isolated.  She torments Mercutio, but Reagan tormented Mercutio, so it's kind of a return ot the status quo.
Mercutio is a very friendly cat, but he's this giant lumbering dumbass that smart cats pick on.
Rick Sanchez
2:46
Was it already a forgone conclusion that Ohtani would need surgery? Does it matter? Why can’t we have nice things, Dan?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:46
It's 2017
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
2:47
Luke Heimlich did not get drafted. Are you elated or ecstatic?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:47
I'm happy he didn't get drafted as I don't think he should see a large bonus.
But I also think that it's not unreasonable for him to pursue a baseball career.
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