JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/15/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/15/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

GafternooN!

Chutzpah

12:03

Who are some prospects in this years draft you might be excited about that are not part of the top 20 group?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Carson Roccaforte is one of the top of my head

12:06

Cam Fisher has really fun power

but these are probably Eric questions

I'm not an amateur draft guru

Chutzpah

12:06

What’s a realistic return for the Tigers if they traded Rodriguez and Lorenzen this year? Could they get a top bat for Rodriguez even with him being hurt right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

I think you could get a highly interesting prospect, but likely nowhere near top 50 for E-Rod

IF he's back and pitching well in July

12:08

Problem is if he's good enough to give a great prospect for him

He's good enough to opt-out

laxtonto

12:08

Which young player has the greatest variance in Zips this year from projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Don't know off-hand! I'll probably do a midseason piece on this

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:09

Orioles-agnostic, who are your favorite players to watch play right now, and why?

Dan Szymborski

12:09

Elly De La Cruz has been great fun

I love watching Gallen games

12:10

It's amazing how much of a *pitcher* he is at his age

no coast

12:10

Who is your favorite to win the NLC at this point? If Milwaukee trades Burnes, it seems like Cinci or the Cubs may be in the best position.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I think Brewers are still the fave

Big Fan

12:11

Have you looked at Spencer Strider to see what's going on with his last few starts?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I've seen his relative struggles in recent weeks but I really haven't dug deeper into them

12:12

And I don't think y'all prefer I just make something up!

Trey

12:12

Does ZIPs account for changes in the playing environment via rule changes, changes to the baseball, etc? Thinking about the huge spike in stolen bases this year and how that may change projections for the future (e.g. Acuna already has 29 steals this year and ZIPs currently projects 28 steals for all of 2024)

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Remember, the 2024 projection is preseason

ZiPS doesn't know changes in the playing environment until the environment happens.

12:13

I try to keep anything that's "Dan Szymborski's Speculation" out of ZiPS, even in cases where it would make the projection possibly more accurate

12:15

Right now, ZiPS has him at 41 for 2024

James

12:16

Can we pencil Hunter Brown in as a middle of the rotation guy going forward?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

That's probably underestimating him now!

Grand Admiral Braun

12:17

Would an extension in Chicago for Stroman at 4/$90M with multiple opt-outs be something you'd be fine with?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I would be

Marcus

12:18

When Grayson Rodríguez return?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Depends on his next few starts I think

He was crushing it against Scranton

But even though it was a solid game in terms of results, he was a bit wild against Gwinnett

I think they want to see inning-to-inning consistency from him

Ben

12:18

The Red Sox are 34-35 with a run differential of 1. They were projected to be about a .500 heading into the season so none of this should be a surprise. What is the path forward to be competitive? Is the plan just to hope Casas/Bello/Mayer/Rafaela become good major leaguerers?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Depends how willing the team is to spend.

12:19

I think the core is a bit on the weak side at the moment, so I do think they need some prospects to work out

Endangered Marlins Fan

12:19

It's kind of hilarious that literal giant Eury Perez has flown under the radar so far. Just watching him pitch feels like an experience

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