JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/2/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:42

I'm not making happy Mazara prounouncements after striking out with him on breakouts for THREE consecutive years

Leland

12:42

Ty France is a top ___ 1B in baseball

Dan Szymborski

12:43

hat wearing in my fantasies

Inaccessible Rail

12:43

Why does the occupation plumber have a 'b' in it, but the name Plummer, as in Nick Plummer or Bill Plummer, has no b?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Have you ever picked a plumb from a tree?

12:44

or picked a plumb from a bird?

I'm pretty sure the surname existed before the concept of a pipe fixer did!

Guest

12:44

When did Trey Mancini become a singles hitter?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

His bat asked for a divorce

Inaccessible Rail

12:45

Finally, something that Mike Trout is bad at: League Commissioner. Can ZIPS tell us who might be a better choice?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I THINK I DID A NEURAL NETWORK ON THIS

12:46

While I search for it, enjoy this bizarre content

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/FH0MTy8WYAkD7ll.mp4

12:49

bah, I can't find it quickly

Instead, enjoy this list of Hogwarts jobs for each MLB manager.

Funky Cold Mussina

12:51

Giancarlo Stanton, over/under 500 homers?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Over, but by a disappointing amount

Sirras

12:51

For what feels like the umpteenth year in a row, NL East was projected to be very competitive but one team is way out in front early. Do you think this is anything other than randomness or are there some correlated variables that projections may not be able to account for effectively?

Or is this just bias on my part based on recent history and/or memory?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

No, the thing is you expect things to *always* be closer when you're looking at mean projections

Because you know that not every team is going to be at their 50th percentile projections

12:52

Even if you *know* every team is a coin flip, on average several will be off by 10

Kuzenheimer

12:52

How bad is that Kris Bryant contract going to look? Better or worse than Jason Heyward's?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Better only because Heyward's worked out really poorly

12:53

It was worse at the time

Bryant's that is

12:54

Do you put any stock into how extreme Keston Hiura's reverse platoon splits have been this season? They're even more exaggerated if you include his Triple-A at bats.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

He's done enough to erase the platoon split

but not reverse it (in a proejction)

12:55

generic platoon splits project future platoon splits better than actual platoon splits in the thousands of plate appearances for hitters

ZiPS projects a reverse platoon split but not an extreme one

coming into the season, .706 OPS vs. LHP, .723 vs. RHP

12:58

The largest reverse platoon splits for righties this year in ZiPS projections were Carlos Perez (49 points), Cameron Maybin (38 points), and Max Stassi (31 points)

Biscuit

12:59

How mad should we be about the Grayson Rodriguez injury ?
And why have the Orioles been starting him every 5th day in AAA ??!?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I wouldn't panic. Lat injury, no? Is there something new?

1:01

It's not like they're slagging him - he hasn't thrown 90 pitches in a single game in 2021 or 2022

Steve O

1:01

Every decent team will get into the playoffs. The Padres will easily get in. There are only 6 teams in the NL at .500 or above. Also just 6 teams in the AL at .500 or above. Expanded playoffs was a terrible idea.

Sodo Mojo

1:02

Taylor Trammell has been killing the ball in his brief call up any chance he has turned the corner as a player and can contribute to the Mariners long term

Dan Szymborski

1:02

SOME, but I wouldn't be on it

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