JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/24/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:45

I dont' believe so, but I publish articles about this from time to time

12:46

Most projections have Jack Leiter as a 2/3 SP. is that simply because scouts rarely put an Ace projection on a prospect or does he have concerns outside of minor control issues? I know he’s not Straus, but he has two plus pitches now, and has shown a feel for the change and slider.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think scouts are a bit more conservative about the comparisons

because nothing gets remembered worse than a hilarious overrating

12:47

Like I'll always remember Sam Perlozzo comparing Ed Rogers to Alex Rodriguez.

Guest

12:48

may I purchase one of your MS paint memes as an NFT?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

That would be something fun to do for a charity thing

I'd have to give it more thought

or maybe a raffle for FanGraphs members

I've thought about putting together a custom FanGraphs keyboard for a lucky subscriber

Guest

12:49

please rank the following pizza styles: neapolitan, detroit, chicago, pub style (thin crust), frozen

Dan Szymborski

12:50

neapolitan, chicago, detroit, pub style >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> st. louis > frozen

Tim

12:50

How good is Zips at predicting Plate Appearances?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

No, and not really designed to

Unless you're looking at PA across ALL levels

Perry Minasian

12:51

The Nats have to add a third baseman you say?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Heh

But seriously, Castro's a weak spot and they don't seem to be super interested in Kieboom in the near near future

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:51

I have made chili with ground beef, ground turkey, ground chicken, steak, shredded pork, chicken breasts & thighs, and venison. All of these are valid protein options for chili, but you tell me which ones you would disqualify.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

All but unground beef

Jordan Walker

12:51

Is it too early for ZIPS to be projecting high schoolers drafted last year? Asking for a friend.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Depends if/where they've played

and the error bars will still be obscene

John Denver

12:52

Dan, how can you find league wide average spin rate on Fangraphs? I've been looking through the Pitching Leaderboard and that lets you find league-wide average stats, but I can't find spin rate

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Best way to do it is with a custom statcast search with spin rate selected and broken down by league

Dave

12:52

If you don't like Chicago style dogs; what do you like on yours

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I didn't say I didn't like them!

Guest

12:52

MLB would hate a geoist candidate, since their most valuable commodity is probably the land they own, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

heh

Someone remembered I'm a georgist!

Pat

12:53

Why don't projection models seem to predict substantial breakouts? Every year, it always seems to be in line with their trajectory. And if that's typically how it goes, what value does it have? What's being tweaked to get more ahead of the game instead of consistently relying on what the player did in the past?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

They do, but not where you're looking for

Let's say that Joe .260 has a breakout season and hits .320

12:54

A mean projection of .320 essentially would be wrong - just because Joe .260 *did* break out doesn't mean that he was equally likely to hit better than .320 than worse than .320.

Math is not Calvinist.

12:55

Here's Vlad going into the year

12:56

ZiPS *did* see breakout potential with lost of possibilities for star level play. But just not at the over/under mark

12:57

If you projected Vladito with a wRC+ of 194 as of today back in March as a *mean* projection, I'd argue that it was a bad projection

And this is why I *never* really look at just mean projections when evaluating results, but the full calibration

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