JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/27/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

It is time. A time for chats.

ForWhomTheBellTrolls

12:01

RE- KC Royals. A lot of fans seem to think it might be a mistake to "sell the future" for reliever rentals and whatnot, and obviously there is a balance. But to me, the farm system is so bad and the team is so far away from actually being a legitimate looking sustainable contender that it could be another 5 years before they are in this type of position again. Do you think it actually makes more sense to sort of "go all in" to some degree for KCR?

Dan Szymborski

12:02

I think there's something to that...if not for Cleveland.

I think if you go all-in, you at least want to have a really good shot at the division

12:03

and the second best record

It becomes trickier when you're mostly chasing a wild card

The other problem is that it's a real sellers' market

I'm not sure the Royals can offer as much as a lot of teams can

12:04

So in the right circumstances, it might make sense

Justin

12:04

What will Coby Mayo’s long term position be in the majors?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I'm still going to be hopeful and say 3B

12:05

His rudimentary 3B defensive numbers aren't really bad and the O's remain confident enough that he's still played 3B like 80% of the time and they've yet to use him in OF

cool

1

Playoff Guy

12:05

I feel like at this point most analytics types have (rightfully) dismissed the playoffs as a carnival game, and the owners have no incentive to change that, but is there any change that you'd do to make it consistently reward actually good teams if you had the power? (ex: shorter timeline, NPB/KBO-style 1-0 series leads or ladder structure, etc)

Dan Szymborski

12:06

I've spoken in favor of using handicaps to reward in-season play

12:07

With the right set of rules, you can have a 30-team playoff tournament that greatly rewards regular season play

like make the White Sox win seven consecutive games against Phillies to advance

Oddball Herrera

12:07

Is there a way to get monthly splits for plate discipline stats? This would be massively helpful for differentiating between hot streaks and potential skill improvements.

Dan Szymborski

12:07

You can actually do splits on the regular leaderboard pretty easily and get whoever you want

12:09

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al...

12:10

Factory of Sadness

12:10

David Fry is cooling off a little now, but he's got a chance to make it to the second round of All-Star voting, despite appearing at 5 different positions (plus DH), and nowhere more than 22 times out of 58 appearances (or 38% of his games). Is he threatening the greatest "super-utility" seasons of all time, for players whose most common position in a season made up less than 40-50% of their total appearances?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Certainly has to be up there

12:11

Though I think in the super-utility pantheon, you need to give more credit for the up the middle positions

Fry has C

but Zobrist played three of the four middle positions in some of those seasons

Tino

12:13

Would you consider Festa a worse, equal, or better prospect than Povich?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I think they're in the same general vicinity

Astros pitchers

12:14

Does Zips buy Blanco and Browns’ breakouts? Is Spencer A a 4 or is dominating the Rockies what he’s supposed to do?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

To an extent. Brown more than Blanco

Brown had been doing really well early in the ZiPS z stats

12:15

ZiPS is less enthralled with arrighetti

Adenolith

12:15

Do you often second guess trades you make? Standard H2H league. Traded away Skenes for Tatis Jr. If I’m deep in pitching, that's a good move right?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I try not to second guess because I have a tendency to hate everything I do

12:16

Every time I submit an article, I suddenly get the feeling that it was the worst piece of crap ever

Beano

12:16

Any hope for Suwinski?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Sure, though you do have to realign your expectations negatively compared to preseason

Champdo

12:17

I hope they don’t trade him, but if they do what do you think a Skubal trade looks like?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Oh, they'd get a pretty solid package, it's the type of trade you'd see a top 50 guy move

Just a good sandwich

12:17

What do the O's do with their OF? I'm a huge believer in Cowser given the combination of plate discipline and contact quality (T50 in both SEAGER + Damage/BBE to borrow Robert Orr's dashboard), but his biggest issue is that he isn't pulling the ball and he isn't getting the everyday ABs needed to make that adjustment. He's also one of the most valuable defenders in the league this year! Can you trade Kjerstad? Wait for an injury? Mullins has been absolutely awful for a full calendar year outside of the last two weeks.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I think the Orioles just keep rolling with the OF

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